Texas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Texas for a showdown to start the second round of the Playoffs. Texas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track, which was visited earlier this year for the All-Star Race back in May (Loop Data and Speeds). The attrition rate was fierce in that race, and the four drivers who I thought were the strongest all had problems (Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott).
In 2022, four high-speed 1.5-mile tracks have been visited (points paying races), and personally, I’m viewing those as more relevant than the All-Star exhibition event (Total Speed Rankings). I’ll note, put special emphasis on the Kansas race from a few weeks ago. It’s the most recent 1.5-mile track visited, and the same tire that will be raced at Texas was used there.
On Saturday, practice was held for Texas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Texas Practice Notes and Texas 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
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Texas Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – Never Made a 5-lap run
Kansas Breakdown – Denny Hamlin’s a 3-time winner at Texas who’ll be tough to beat. In the “Lone Star State”, there’s a lot of things to like about him. Hamlin’s an elite performer here, he’s one of the premiere performers at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, and the #11 team continues to run well and click off good results on a weekly basis. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin ranks among the best and over the combined races, Hamlin’s Total Speed Ranking is the 2nd best. At Kansas, which was recently visited, Hamlin finished runner-up. At the other high-speed 1.5’s visited this year, Hamlin won at Charlotte, finished 4th at Kansas #1 and at Las Vegas he was one of the best (best Total Speed Ranking) but drive train problems led to a DNF. Michigan is another quality data point to look back to, and Hamlin finished 3rd there. Over the last four overall races at high-speed intermediate tracks, Hamlin has a 2.5 average finish, the best driver rating and he’s 4 for 4 at finishing in the top five. At Texas, Hamlin is always a factor. This spring in the All-Star Race, Hamlin finished 2nd. Last fall, Hamlin was a top five contender, but things went south for him late and he finished an asterisk mark 11th. In the race, Hamlin had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, a 7.5 average running position and was running in 5th with 21 to go but then in the closing laps, he spun and was then later involved in a wreck. In fall 2020, Hamlin was solid and finished 9th. In summer 2020, Hamlin had a great car and looked like a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 20th after his race fell apart over the closing 50 laps. In the race, Hamlin was in 2nd with 49 laps to go, but shortly after that he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which put him back in the teens. Then back in traffic in the closing laps he spun twice. In fall 2019, Hamlin was a top five contender but spun into the grass while running in 6th which led to his 28th. In spring 2019, Hamlin had a great car. He finished 1st, earned the 2nd best driver rating, won Stage #2 and led 45 laps.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +650 (Saturday post-qualifying)
Texas Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Texas Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Texas Playability Value Chart
2) William Byron
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 3rd /10 Lap Avg – 4th / 15 Lap Average – 2nd
Kansas Breakdown – William Byron and the #24 team are heating up, so don’t overlook him at Texas. In the Playoffs so far, Byron has a 5.7 average finish and he’s one of just 3 drivers who are 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Byron has been one of the best and his Total Speed Ranking is the 7th best. In the races, Byron finished 5th at Las Vegas, 6th at Kansas #2, 16th at Kansas #1 (flat tire while leading) and then was strong at Charlotte but crashed (32nd but was in 8th shortly before he crashed in a restart “Big One”). At Texas, William Byron has been strong and minus summer 2020 where he crashed, Byron’s average finish is 10.7. Last fall at Texas, the #24 was fast and Byron finished runner-up. Additionally, Byron finished 5th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 2.5 average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led the 2nd most laps (55). In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 3rd best green flag speed.
DraftKings $9,100 / FanDuel $11,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000 (Saturday post-qualifying)
3) Kyle Larson
Start 9th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Avg – 11th
Kansas Breakdown – Kyle Larson will be a factor in the “Lone Star State.” Larson had the field covered and pulled out the broom last year, and in 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks where there’s correlation, he’s been one of the best. This season at high-speed 1.5’s, Larson has a series best 5.3 average finish, he’s tied for the 2nd best average running position (8.7), his driver rating is the 3rd best and his Total Speed Ranking ranks 9th. In terms of results, Larson’s finishes are 2nd (Las Vegas), 2nd (Kansas #1), 9th (Charlotte, was the leader until a late caution came out) and then 8th (Kansas #2). This spring at Texas for the All-Star Race, Larson looked to be one of the best, but he had a sudden flat tire and crashed while running in 2nd. Last year at Texas, nobody was better than Larson. Last fall, Larson put on a clinic and in the race he finished 1st, led 256 laps, earned a rare perfect driver rating and had a 2.1 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race. In other speed stats, Larson also ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run.
DraftKings $10700 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +650 (Saturday post-qualifying)
