Charlotte Roval Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – At the Charlotte Roval, I think Ricky Stenhouse is a high-teens to low-twenties driver. His last three result are within that range, and I think it generally matches up with how he’s performed at road courses in 2022. For the season on this track type minus COTA where he had drive train problems, Stenhouse has an 18.0 average finish and a 22.0 average running position.
Charlotte Roval Track History – At the Charlotte Roval over the last three races, Ricky Stenhouse is 3 for 3 at finishing between 17th to 21st and has an 18.3 average finish. Last year, Stenhouse was a low-twenties performer. In the race he finished 21st, had a 22.5 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In the two Charlotte Roval races prior to that, Stenhouse had back-to-back 17th’s.
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – Joey Hand is starting to run better at road courses now that he’s getting more seat time, and at the Roval, I think he’s a high-teens to low-twenties driver if he can avoid trouble. I do think he carries risk; this is a Rick Ware Racing car and they’re not exactly bulletproof. This year at road courses, Hand has two results in the low-twenties (20th at Sonoma and 21st at Road America), but then in the other three races he’s had problems and finished 29th or worse. In terms of Total Speed Rankings over all the combined events, Hand ranks 21st.
Charlotte Roval Track History – Last year at the Charlotte Roval in his Cup debut, Hand was extremely uncompetitive. In the race he finished 27th and had the 31st best Total Speed Ranking.
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Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – This year at road courses, Ty Dillon has typically been about 20th place good, so I don’t see why that trend won’t continue. For the season minus Indy RC where Kyle Larson nailed him, Dillon has a 19.8 average finish, a 21.6 average running position and he’s had a result in the top 23 every race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings over the combined events, Dillon ranks 28th.
Charlotte Roval Track History – At the Charlotte Roval over his three starts, Ty Dillon has a 20.0 average finish and a 20.8 average running position. Last year, Dillon obviously didn’t race here. In 2020, Dillon led 5 laps early and won Stage #1 with tire strategy (was on slicks earlier than others), but when the checkered flag waved, he finished 23rd. In his two starts prior to that, Dillon had results of 15th and 22nd.
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – At the Charlotte Roval, I’m going to pencil in Aric Almirola for a 20’s finish. In 2022 on this track type, Almirola has a 25.6 average finish, a 27.5 average running position and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is 32nd. When you pair that with his recent form and his Charlotte Roval track record, it’s clear expectations need to be pretty low.
Charlotte Roval Track History – At the Charlotte Roval over the four combined races, Aric Almirola has an 18.3 average finish and a 19.0 average running position. Last year at the Charlotte Roval, Almirola had his least competitive performance and finished 24th. Additionally, Almirola had a 21.7 average running position, ranked 24th for speed late in a run and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. In the three Roval races prior to that, Almirola went 3 for 3 at finishing between 14th to 19th. In 2020, Almirola finished 16th, had a 20.9 average running position and over the last two segments he ranked 18th in terms of speed. In 2019, Almirola looked respectable and had his best Roval performance. When the checkered flag waved, he finished 14th, had a 12th place average running position and ranked as the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2018, Almirola finished 19th, but he was aided by attrition to finish that well. In the race on lap 45 while he was running around 13th he got into the wall hard and then made an unexpected pit stop. During his stop his team had a tire violation which resulted in a pass-through penalty. Later on lap 69 he spun into the grass. During a late restart he was also collected in the “Big One” which involved a ton of drivers.
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