Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Kyle Larson
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – At Sonoma, the road to victory lane likely goes thru Kyle Larson. Larson thoroughly dominated the field in 2021, and in 2022 if he would’ve used better pit strategy and not lost a wheel, there’s a great chance he would likely have back-to-back wins at this west coast road course. At road courses in Hendrick equipment, Larson is a four-time winner. On Sunday, I think he has a great chance to notch win #5 in the 5. If you’re looking for a pole pick, pick Larson! He’s won five straight Sonoma pole (2021 was by the formula) and he’s never started worse than 5th.
Sonoma Track History – In the #5 at Sonoma, Larson has looked unbeatable, and he could easily be 2 for 2 at reaching victory lane. Last year, Larson likely had the best car but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven up thru the field to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 10th but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 12th, 15th and then 17th. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, ran the most fastest laps by a wide margin (29, next highest was 6), earned a near perfect driver rating was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking. His speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 2nd and then 1st. In 4 of the 5 Sonoma races prior to that, Larson finished between 10th to 15th.
Tyler Reddick
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – At Sonoma, Tyler Reddick will be tough to beat. In the Next Gen on this track type, nobody has been better than Reddick. In the new car at road courses, Reddick has won 3 of the last 5 races and minus Sonoma 2022 which wasn’t incident free for him, Reddick has a 3.8 average finish, a 5.5 average running position and he’s averaged leading 20 laps per race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranks 2nd overall and in 5 of the 7 races he’s ranked in the top 2 in terms of Total Speed Rankings. This spring at COTA, Tyler Reddick put on a display of domination and the #45 was in a zip code of its own. In the race, Reddick finished 1st, had the best Total Speed Ranking and led 41 laps.
Sonoma Track History – Sonoma has not been a good track for Tyler Reddick on paper and he’s 2 for 2 at having problems. Last year, Reddick showed top five potential, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. On lap 50 he was running in 4th, but then shortly after that he was penalized for speeding on pit road which dropped him to the back. Then early in the Final Stage back in traffic, Josh Bilicki spun and Tyler Reddick got a piece of it and then came to pit road and said something broke. When the checkered flag waved, Reddick finished 35th. Prior to his speeding penalty, Reddick consistently ran around the top five. In 2021, Reddick didn’t have a great debut at Sonoma. That said, his race also wasn’t incident free and early in Stage #2 while he was running around 20th, he had a tire rub and made an unexpected pit stop. When the race reached its conclusion, Reddick finished 19th, had a 17.5 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking.
Chase Elliott
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is the road course king and at Sonoma, he’ll be tough to beat in his “Return Race.” Elliott’s a 7-time winner on this track type, but Victory Lane has long eluded Elliott at Sonoma. One thing Elliott doesn’t lack on this track type is speed, and since 2022 over the combined events, Elliott ranks #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings. On Sunday, look for Elliott to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Sonoma Track History – Chase Elliott has never won at Sonoma, but he’s performed at an elite level. Since 2017 minus an engine failure in 2019, Elliott has a 5.5 average finish. Last year, Elliott had a great chance to notch his first “W” at Sonoma, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Elliott led 26 laps but then late in Stage #2 while leading, Elliott had problems during a pit stop and was then penalized for pitting outside his pit box. That dropped him back to 33rd to start the final Stage which makes his 8th pretty impressive. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Elliott ran a great race. In the event he started 2nd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 4.8 average running position, led 13 laps and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Elliott had a great car but came home a clunker 37th. In the race, Elliott’s engine blew up while he was running in 3rd. In the two races prior to that, Elliott had results of 4th and 8th.
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier
