Darlington Southern 500 Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday night under the lights, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington to kick off the start of the 2023 Playoffs. When Darlington was visited in the spring, it marked the halfway point of the regular season. This time around with a championship on the line, look for the intensity to go up a dial or two.

Darlington is a unique 1.33-mile egg shaped oval where tire wear is extreme, and the driver is a difference maker. Often times at Darlington, you’ll see the same drivers finish up front, since this race is in the drivers hands more than others.

On Saturday, practice was held for Darlington. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes, Darlington Practice Speed Cheat Sheet and Darlington Lap by Lap Average Speed Rankings.

Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Darlington Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Darlington Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington and with his patient/attack the track driving style, there’s no doubt he’ll be a factor. At Darlington, Hamlin’s a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 54% of the time and in the top ten 73% of the time. Over the last five Darlington races minus this spring (fluid on the track and got into the wall early) and last spring where he had one of the best cars but had problems, Hamlin has a 2.7 average finish. In Southern 500’s, Hamlin always brings his A-game and currently has results of 1st and 2nd in the last two. In practice, Hamlin was fast and really happy with his car.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin has thrived at Darlington and is arguably the best. This spring, Hamlin finished 12th, but I see no reason to really read into his afternoon. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 he radioed his team that his car took off on him and he got into the wall, thanks to fluid on the track. Last fall, Hamlin nearly raced his way to victory lane but came up short at the end. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had a 5.4 average running position and led 6 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 4th for Green Flag Speed & Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2022, Hamlin was one of the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps but then in the final Stage his afternoon went south. Hamlin’s pit strategy had him shuffled back to 9th on lap 248 (stayed out on older tires longer than others) and then shortly after that a caution came out and he had a slow stop that dropped him back to 18th. Right after that, Hamlin was caught up in the “Big One” following a restart. In 2021, Hamlin led 146 laps and raced his way to victory lane in the fall and then finished 5th in the spring.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Odds To Win +500

Further Recommended Reading = Darlington Finish Projections, DraftKings Darlington Scoring Projections, FanDuel Darlington Scoring Projections

2) Kyle Larson
Start 18th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Darlington and on Sunday night he’s primed to be a factor. Larson’s never won here but he’s had dominant performances in the past and likely would’ve won this spring if a late caution didn’t come out. Over Larson’s last four Darlington incident free races, he’s had results of 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. Since 2022 at high-wear intermediate tracks, Larson has 2-wins and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 4th best. In practice, Kyle Larson was a speed standout and had the best 20 and 25 lap averages.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson is one of the premiere performers at Darlington, despite being winless. Since 2018 in Southern 500’s, Larson has a series best 4.8 average finish. This spring, Larson might’ve just had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the final green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader and looked to have the race in hand until late mayhem ensued which brought him back to the competition. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 7th, 2nd and then 1st. Last fall, Larson had a laundry list of problems (mystery problems under his hood, spin) but he rallied to finish 12th. Personally, I wouldn’t read into that race any. In spring 2022, Larson was one of the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 36th. In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he rebounded up to 10th after driving up thru the field, his engine blew up. In a post DNF interview, Larson said his car was “super good.” In the four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish and averaged leading 121 laps per race.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +450

3) Christopher Bell
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Outlook – At Darlington, look for polesitter Christopher Bell to have a strong showing and potentially be a contender. Bell had a misleading result this spring but “Performance Wise” over the last five, Bell’s been a top six performer. This weekend, Bell’s getting a pit crew upgrade in the form of the #54 over the wall crew. In terms of pit crew rankings, this is a bump up from the 20th best team to the 3rd best team. In practice, Bell was happy with his car and had the 5th best 10-lap average.
Darlington Track Record Breakdown – At Darlington, Christopher Bell’s consistently been top 6 good, “Performance Wise.” This spring, Bell was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 14th. In the race, Bell finished 10th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. On lap 278 before late mass mayhem, Bell was up to 2nd but then during that caution he pitted twice. Last fall, Bell ran well and was one of the best. In the race, Bell finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 5.5 average running position and then finished 5th. In spring 2022, Bell finished 3rd in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position and then finished 6th. In terms of speed analytics, Bell had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 8th for speed late in a run. In fall 2021, Bell finished 20th but take note in that race he was a top five contender before making an unexpected pit stop in the last Stage. In spring 2021, Bell had a great car and was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 14th. In the race, Bell started 21st, finished 6th in Stage #2 and was running in 5th with 4 laps to go until he got into the wall and made an unexpected pit stop.
DraftKings $9,400 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Odds To Win +600