On Sunday, race #2 for the 2023 Playoffs will commence at Kansas! Kansas is a relatively smooth but aging 1.5-mile track that has progressive banking which offers drivers multiple grooves, and they can race from the top of the track to the bottom. In addition to studying Kansas track history and practice, I would recommend looking back to the other races held at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks and Michigan this year (High-Speed 1.5’s + Michigan Total Speed Rankings).

On Saturday, practice was held for Kansas. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Kansas Practice Notes and Kansas 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Kansas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Kansas Full Field Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Kansas Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Kansas and on Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win. Larson was a standout this spring and “Performance Wise” in the #5, Larson’s been a contender to win in 4 of his 5 races. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson’s been one of the best and could’ve easily have won 2 of the 3 races (Kansas and Las Vegas). In terms of Total Speed Rankings over the High-Speed 1.5’s + Michigan grouping, Larson ranks 4th this year. In practice, Larson liked his car, said it was better than it was in the spring and had the best 15-lap average.
Kansas Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson ranks among the premiere performers at Kansas and over the last four races, Larson has the best driver rating, the best average running position (6.2), he’s averaged leading the most laps per race (61.0) and has the 2nd best average finish (3.3). In May, Larson nearly raced his way to victory lane, but Denny Hamlin sent him into the wall while leading on the last lap which led to his 2nd. In the race, Larson led 85 laps, ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and then 3rd for both Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. Over the final quarter of the race, the #5 was the fastest car on the track. Last fall, Larson finished 8th, had an 8.9 average running position and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2022, Larson was stout and finished runner-up. In the race, Larson finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6.3 average running position and led 29 laps. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the 3rd best Green Flag Speed, the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. I’ll note, Larson’s race wasn’t completely incident free. While leading around lap 35, Larson had a slow pit stop that dropped him outside the top ten. Then later in Stage #1, Larson had a long stop to repair some fender damage. In 2021, Larson could’ve easily pulled out the broom for the season. In fall 2021, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane and in the spring, he led 132 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking but finished a misleading 19th.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $13,000 / DK Odds To Win +450

Further Recommended Reading = Kansas Finish Projections, DraftKings Kansas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Kansas Scoring Projections 

2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Kansas Outlook – Martin Truex Jr. is a two-time winner at Kansas who should be on your short list of favorites. Kansas has been a phenomenal track for Truex and over the three races in the Next Gen, Truex is tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking. Another key attribute I like about Truex is his form at tracks that have correlation. In 2023 at high-speed 1.5’s + Michigan, Truex has the best Total Speed Ranking and a series best 5.0 average finish. In practice, the #19 was strong and Jeff Burton really liked Truex’s long run speed. On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Kansas Track Record Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has been a phenomenal performer at Kansas and over the last five races, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing between 5th to 8th and has a 6.4 average finish. Going further back, in 12 of the last 13 races, he’s finished in the top ten.  This spring, Truex was one of the best and performed better than his 8th. In the race, Truex had a 4.1 average running position, led 79 laps, ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In the final Stage, the #19 just wasn’t at its best. Last fall, Truex had a strong showing and finished 5th. In the race, Truex led 24 laps, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 5th for Green Flag Speed & Speed Late In A Run. To make his afternoon a little more impressive, Truex was even caught speeding on pit road during the competition caution. In spring 2022, Truex had a great car and finished 6th, despite having a flat tire right at the end of Stage #2 while running in 4th and later getting caught speeding on pit road around lap 200.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Odds To Win +450

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 14th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Kansas Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Kansas and on Sunday, look for Hamlin to finish in the top five and compete for the win. In the Next Gen at Kansas, Hamlin has a 2.3 average finish and is tied for the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. This spring at Kansas, nobody was better than Hamlin. In 2023 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks + Michigan, Hamlin has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of performance at similar tracks this year, Hamlin finished 3rd at Michigan, was running in 3rd at Las Vegas with 4 to go before a late caution came out (11th) and was a top five contender at Charlotte until Elliott crashed him.
Kansas Track Record Breakdown – At Kansas, Denny Hamlin has been a standout performer and over the last eight races, Hamlin has 3 wins, 6 results in the top 5 and a 5.1 average finish. In May, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane after sending Larson into the wall on the last lap. In the race, Hamlin earned the best driver rating, had a race best 3.6 average running position and led 34 laps. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, Hamlin finished runner-up and over the final quarter of the race, the #11 was the fastest car on the track. In spring 2022, Hamlin was one of the best despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, got an equipment interference penalty around lap 35, finished 8th in Stage #2 and then rallied to finish 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 6th best Green Flag Speed and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Odds To Win +650