Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Bubba Wallace
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, Bubba Wallace is facing elimination and is currently -19 below the cutline, so he’ll have to come up big on Saturday night to avoid a first-round bounce. Wallace ran well and looked like a top five contender last summer before his demise, but Bristol hasn’t been a friendly track for him with his all-time best result being 10th and him finishing outside the top 15 in 75% of his starts.
Bristol Track History – Bubba Wallace has been pretty respectable at Bristol and prior to his tenure at 23XI, I hailed Bristol as his best non-superspeedway track. Last summer, Wallace looked like a top five contender, but finished an asterisk mark 29th. On lap 176 while running in 4th, Wallace went to the garage due to power steering problems which ruined his evening. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Wallace was tied for being the 7th fastest. In 2021, Wallace was a mid to high-teens driver. In the race, Wallace finished 16th, had a 17.6 average running position and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2020, Wallace was at his best early, but faded down the stretch to finish 22nd. In the race he finished 10th in Stage #1, had a 17th place average running position and had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2020, Wallace had his best Bristol race. He finished 10th, had a 16.9 average running position and ranked as the 16th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. I’ll note his finish is the real deal. With 56 laps to go before late cautions started to come out, he was running in 10th. In summer 2019, Wallace finished 14th.

Martin Truex Jr.
Bristol Fantasy Spin – At Bristol, Martin Truex is capable of performing at a high-level but with only 1 top ten over the last 9 races, there’s clearly safer options out there. Going further back over the last 17 Bristol races, Truex has only finished in the top ten twice, and in 13 of them he’s finished 17th or worse. On Saturday night, I’m going to approach Truex with extreme caution and view him as a super risky top ten contender.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol since 2018, Martin Truex Jr. has a 22.1 average finish and in 6 of the 8 races he’s finished 17th or worse. Last year, Truex finished 36th after his race got cut short due to power steering issues on lap 198. In the race, Truex finished 10th in Stage #1 and was running in 13th on lap 194 just prior to his evening being over. In 2021, Truex had his best Bristol race in a decade and finished 7th. Additionally, Truex finished 9th in Stage #1, had a 10th place average running position, the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for speed late in a run. In summer 2020, Truex started 3rd, didn’t place in any Stage, finished 24th, had a 20.5 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 18th best. In the race, Truex progressively fell back in the running order and then in the second Stage while he was in 20th on lap 213 he had a vibration and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him 3 laps down. In spring 2020, Truex was fast, but he finished 20th. In the race he had an 11.9 average running position, ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run but his race wasn’t incident free. With 38 laps to go he was running in 5th, but then with 34 laps to go he was caught up in a multi-car wreck which led to his misleading result.

Alex Bowman
Bristol Fantasy Spin – Alex Bowman is a capable performer at Bristol and in Hendrick equipment minus last fall where he ran great but crashed, and spring races in 2020 and 2019, Bowman’s average finish is 9.8. 2023 has been a really bad season for Bowman across the board and at Bristol where a lot of bad things can happen, I would view him as a high-risk top ten contender.
Bristol Track History – Alex Bowman has been competitive at Bristol in recent races. Last year, the #48 was fast but Bowman crashed. In the race, Bowman finished 6th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 but was then collected in the lap 277 “Big One” which marked the end of his race. I’ll note, Bowman lost power steering in Stage #2 and in a post-DNF interview he said his car was fast and capable of running in the top five. In terms of green flag speed, Bowman ranked 9th. In 2021, Bowman finished 5th, had a 10.4 average running position, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In fall 2020, Bowman was a top ten contender, but finished a misleading 16th. In the race, Bowman finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. On lap 301 he made an unexpected pit stop due to a vibration. On lap 282 which was shortly before his problem he was running in 6th.

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