Texas Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, I think Ty Gibbs is a low double-digit to mid-teens driver who has a great chance to compete for a top ten. Kansas is a similar track with correlation and a few weeks back at that venue, Gibbs finished 14th (was in 11th before the late caution). In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings in 2023, Gibbs ranks 14th.
Texas Track History – Last year at Texas in a pre-rookie start, Gibbs finished 20th, had a 21.7 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. Last year in the Xfinity series, Gibbs finished 3rd in the fall and then 12th in the spring.
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, I think Joey Logano is a low double-digit to mid-teens driver. Texas has been a stellar track for Logano, but he hasn’t been great at high-speed 1.5’s in 2023. This year on this sub-track type, Logano has the 16th best Total Speed Ranking, and not once has he ranked higher than 13th in terms of speed. In terms of results on this sub-track type, Logano has a pair of top 6 finishes at Kansas (was in 15th a few weeks ago before the late caution came out) and then in the other two he finished 21st or worse.
Texas Track History – Joey Logano is a former winner at Texas (2014) and in 10 of the last 12 races, he’s finished in the top ten. Since 2019 #2 minus 2021 where his engine blew up late while running in 10th, Logano has a 4.8 average finish. Last year, Logano was strong and finished runner-up. In the race, Logano finished 3rd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 9.4 average running position and led 15 laps. In terms of speed stats, Logano ranked 2nd for speed late in a run, had the 6th best Green Flag Speed and the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the last 40 laps to close out the race, Logano consistently ran in 2nd. In 2021, Logano was poised to finish around 10th, but on lap 298 while he was running in 10th his engine blew up. From the race, I’ll note his Total Speed ranking was the 8th best. In fall 2020, Logano was solid. He finished 10th, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and had an 8.2 average running position. In summer 2020, Logano had a strong showing. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #2, 3rd overall, had a 7.4 average running position and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking.
Texas Fantasy Spin – If you’re looking for a mid-tier dark horse at Texas who might come home with a top ten, don’t overlook Erik Jones. In 8 of the last 9 Texas races he’s finished in the top 12, and just a few weeks ago at Kansas he finished 3rd and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Michigan is another high-speed intermediate track that has correlation, and he finished 10th there. At Texas, I’m going to view Jones as a teens driver who has upside.
Texas Track History – Erik Jones has been strong at Texas and in 8 of the last 9 races he’s finished in the top 12. Last year in the “Lone Star State”, Jones started 27th, had an 11.8 average running position and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Jones had the 11th best Green Flag Speed and the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Jones ran well. In the race, Jones finished 12th, had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking, the 15th best Green Flag Speed and had a 15.2 average running position. In fall 2020, Jones had his one outlier over the stretch noted and finished 21st. In the race, Jones finished 3rd in Stage #1, but then he essentially slowly faded back over the rest of the race to his poor finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked as the 17th fastest. In summer 2020, Jones finished 9th in Stage #2, finished 6th overall and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the six Texas races prior to that, Jones had results of 6th, 10th, 4th, 4th, 4th and 10th.