Texas Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Corey LaJoie
Texas Fantasy Spin – Corey LaJoie isn’t a bad “Low Tier” pick at Texas. LaJoie snuck in a 14th last fall but what I really like about him is his body of work at high-speed 1.5’s this year. In 2023 on this sub-track type, LaJoie is 4 for 4 at finishing between 17th to 22nd and his average finish is 19.75. On Sunday, pencil in LaJoie for a result right around 20th.
Texas Track History – Last year at Texas, Corey LaJoie had his best “Lone Star State” performance and finished 14th. That said, LaJoie had a 22.9 average running position and the 31st best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, attrition helped him quite a bit and with 30 to go he was back in 22nd. In 2021, LaJoie finished 20th, had a 23.2 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, LaJoie finished 25th, had a 24.2 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2020, LaJoie finished 16th.

Michael McDowell
Texas Fantasy Spin – I can’t say I’m too high on Michael McDowell at Texas. High-speed intermediates have been like kryptonite to the #34 team and exposed them for having a speed deficiency. At Kansas just a few weeks ago when the #34 team brought their A-game, McDowell finished 26th. In 2023 over the four high-speed 1.5’s visited, McDowell has a 26.3 average finish, the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 25th to 28th.
Texas Track History – At Texas, Michael McDowell does a pretty good job at finishing better than expected and in 5 of the last 8 races, he’s finished between 11th to 18th. Since 2020, McDowell has a 17.3 average finish and a 19.2 average running position. Last year, McDowell had his best performance ever at Texas. In the race, McDowell started 5th, finished 10th in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, had a 10.2 average running position, led 12 laps via pit strategy and then finished 11th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, McDowell ranked 8th for Speed Late In A Run and then 13th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, McDowell was involved in the lap 30 “Big One” but he kept on motoring along and finished 17th. Additionally, McDowell had a 19.3 average running position, the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking and the 24th best Green Flag Speed.

Ryan Preece
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, I think Ryan Preece has high-teens to low-twenties potential. Preece has finished within that range in 3 of the last 5 Texas races, and at Kansas the most recent high-speed 1.5-mile track visited he just finished 18th.
Texas Track History – Over the last five Texas races, Ryan Preece has three finishes between 18th to 23rd, and then in the two others he finished 36th or worse. In 2021 when he most recently raced here, Preece crashed and finished 36th. In 2020, Preece finished 18th in the fall and then crashed in the summer (40th). In 2019, Preece’s finishes were 22nd and 23rd.

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