Texas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat. Hamlin’s a 3-time winner and in recent races in the “Lone Star State”, he’s consistently been a factor. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin’s been one of the premiere performers and over the combined races, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of results at high-speed 1.5’s, Hamlin won at Kansas #1, finished 2nd at Kansas #2 (leader before the late caution) and then in the other two he was running in the top five until he had problems. One attribute you have to love about Hamlin is his confidence. Hamlin just won at Bristol, and he could’ve easily swept the opening round of the Playoffs.
Texas Track History – Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner at Texas, but he’s lacked consistency. Over the last 11 Texas races, Hamlin has six top 11’s but in the other five he’s finished 20th or worse. When it comes to “Performance”, Hamlin hasn’t been lacking. Last year, Hamlin had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 10th. Around lap 268 under caution while running in 2nd, William Byron spun him, and it dropped Hamlin all the way back to 22nd. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run, 7th for Green Flag Speed and 8th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Hamlin finished 11th, but that’s a misleading result. In the race, Hamlin had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, a 7.5 average running position and was running in 5th with 21 to go, but then things went downhill. Shortly after that with 19 to go he spun which brought out the caution. Then to make matters worse, Hamlin was involved in a multi-car wreck with 7 to go. In 2020 #2, Hamlin was solid and finished 9th. In spring 2020, Hamlin had a great car and looked like a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 20th after his race fell apart over the closing 50 laps. In the race, Hamlin was in 2nd with 49 laps to go, but shortly after that he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which dropped him back to the teens. That’s when the trouble started. With 15 laps to go while he was just outside the top ten he spun. Then with 7 laps to go he spun again. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #2, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking.

Kyle Larson
Texas Fantasy Spin – At Texas, the road to victory lane might very well go thru Kyle Larson. Texas has been a standout venue for Larson in the #5, and in 2023 at high-speed 1.5’s, Larson has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and for the season minus Charlotte, Larson has a 2.7 average finish, a 5.5 average running position and he’s averaged leading 82.3 laps per race. A few weeks back at Kansas, Larson finished 4th and led 99 laps. One attribute you have to love about Larson is his momentum and in the Playoffs he has a series best 2.3 average finish.
Texas Track History – Kyle Larson is a recent Texas winner who’s thrived in the #5. In Hendrick equipment at Texas, Larson has an All-Star Race win and between his combined points paying races he has a 5.0 average finish, a 6.3 average running position and the best driver rating. Last year, Larson started 9th, won Stage #1, led 19 laps, had a 10.4 average running position and finished 9th. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked 5th for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Larson had the field covered and put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1 (others beat him on pit strategy), won Stage #2, had a 2.1 average running position, led 256 laps and earned a rare perfect driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race. In other speed stats, Larson also ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run.

Tyler Reddick
Texas Fantasy Spin – Tyler Reddick is the defending Texas champ and on Sunday, he’ll be tough to beat. Reddick is fresh off a win at Kansas and over the last three races held at high-speed 1.5’s, Reddick has the best average finish (5.0), the best average running position (6.2) and the best driver rating. In 2023 over all four high-speed 1.5’s visited, Reddick has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. On Sunday, look for Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Texas has been a great track for Tyler Reddick. Reddick’s the defending champ and over his four starts, Reddick has a 6.8 average finish. Last year en route to victory lane, Reddick led the most laps (70), had the best driver rating, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and the 4th best Green Flag Speed. Reddick didn’t place in any Stage but when it was closing time, Reddick had control of the race. In 2021, Reddick had a strong showing. In the race he finished 9th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2 and then finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, that’s actually a misleading result. On lap 326 while battling Byron for 2nd, they had contact and then Reddick dropped back over the closing laps. Additionally, Reddick had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, ranked 5th for speed late in a run and had a 6th place average running position. In fall 2020, Reddick was OK and finished 15th. In spring 2020, Reddick finished runner-up courtesy of using late pit strategy following a caution. Just prior to his pit strategy play, Reddick was running just outside the top ten around 13th.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Texas Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions >The Low Tier