Busch Light Clash Confidence Rankings / Post Heat Race Predictions
Welcome to 2023! TONIGHT, NASCAR will finally be back and will be racing at the Los Angeles Coliseum, for the Busch Light Clash. The “Coliseum” is just .25-miles, so think of it as basically NASCAR racing at a high-school track. The best comp track out there is Martinsville, but that’s still twice as big. In terms of variables of importance for me this weekend, a strong showing in practice and the Heat Races is the most important variable, so put a lot of emphasis on that when making a pick.
Here’s a look at our Busch Light Clash Practice Notes and Practice Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the Busch Light Clash Starting Lineup.
Final Busch Light Clash Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Joey Logano
Start – 2nd
Clash Outlook – In the Busch Light Clash, look for Joey Logano to be a contender. Logano raced his way to victory lane in 2022, and his “Paper Clip” track racing prowess ranks among the best. Drivers will need to dial up the intensity in this race, and I have no doubt Logano can rise to the occasion. Last year at Martinsville which is the best comp track for this unique venue, Logano finished 5th in the fall (3rd best Speed Ranking) and then snuck in a 2nd in the spring.
Clash Track Record Breakdown – At the Coliseum, Joey Logano was the class of the field in 2022 but mediocre at best last year. In 2023 in this exhibition race, Logano was just mired back in traffic all race long and had a mid-pack evening. In the race, Logano finished 16th and had a 13.5 average running position. It was just an un-notable evening. In 2022, nobody was better than the #22. In the race, Logano finished 1st, led 35 laps, had a 2.5 average running position, was the fastest driver late in a run, was the fastest driver over the last quarter of the race when the trophy was on the line and had the 2nd best green flag speed.
DraftKings $9,400 / FanDuel $13,000
2) Denny Hamlin
Start – 1st
Clash Outlook – Denny Hamlin’s arguably the premiere short track racer in NASCAR and in the Busch Light Clash, he’ll be tough to beat. Hamlin’s yet to have a really great result at the Coliseum, but he had a hot rod last year and looked like one of the best until he got booted from the lead. Martinsville is the best comp track out there and in 2023, Hamlin finished 3rd in the fall (2nd best Total Speed Ranking, led 156 laps) and 4th in the spring (Best Total Speed Ranking). In 2023 across all the shorter-flat tracks, the #11 was fast and Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Hamlin’s shoulder injury sounds like it will be a non-factor this weekend.
Clash Track Record Breakdown – In the LA Busch Light Clash, Denny Hamlin has yet to have an incident free race and his average finish is 16th. Last year, Hamlin finished 9th which is an extremely respectable result when you take into account, Bubba Wallace bumped him out of the lead on lap 43, and then later on lap 74 when he was in 12th, Ross Chastain dive bombed him and spun the #11 which dropped Hamlin all the way to the back. In the race, Hamlin started 3rd, led 26 laps before Wallace bumped him out of the way and ran the most-fastest laps (17). In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin ranked 4th for Green Flag Speed and 7th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, I wouldn’t even bother reading into Denny Hamlin’s evening. Hamlin had power steering issues early and it led to his last place finish.
DraftKings $9,700 / FanDuel $12,500
3) William Byron
Start – 6th
Clash Outlook – In the Clash, look for William Byron to be a factor. Byron’s been solid in both previous Clash’s, but I think the #24 team is ready to turn it up a dial as he begins his “#24 in 2024” campaign. Martinsville wasn’t a strength for Byron last year, but I’m sure the #24 team went to work during the off-season to focus on turning that around. Byron’s a former Martinsville winner, so I have no doubt about his “Paper Clip Track” racing prowess.
Clash Track Record Breakdown – William Byron has been one of the better performers at the LA Coliseum. He’s one of just 4 drivers who are 2 for 2 at finishing in the top ten and his average finish is 8th. Last year, Byron had a strong showing. In the race, Byron started 4th, had a 5.4 average running position and then finished 10th overall. I’ll note, to close out the race Byron lost quite a few positions. With 9 to go, Byron was running in 6th. Additionally, Byron had the 5th best Driver Rating and ranked 6th for Green Flag Speed. In 2022, Byron started 7th, had a 5.5 average running position, earned the 7th best driver rating and then finished 6th. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 7th best Green Flag Speed.
DraftKings $9,900 / FanDuel $12,500
