Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Bristol! Bristol Concrete! Bristol is “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile” and it’s been described as flying a jet fighter in a gymnasium. The low-line will have resin on it this weekend but at the end of the day, I think the high-line will prevail.
On Saturday, practice was held for Bristol. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Bristol Practice Notes and Bristol 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Bristol Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup. Check out this quick post about The importance of starting up front at Bristol.
Bristol Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Bristol Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a 3-time Bristol winner, and last year Hamlin raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion despite getting a speeding penalty. There’s no debate he was the class of the field. “Performance Wise”, Hamlin’s been a factor to win 4 of the last 7 Bristol races, so you can be confident he’ll show up and be a factor. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Track Record Breakdown – At Bristol, Denny Hamlin has been one of the premiere performers. Since 2019 minus a pair of misleading results in 2020, Hamlin has 2-wins and a 5.0 average finish. In the Next Gen over the combined races, Hamlin has a 5.0 average finish, a 7.1 average running position, the 3rd best Driver Rating and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks as the 3rd best. Last year, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, was caught speeding on pit road during Stage #1 around lap 70 while running in 2nd, rallied to finish 4th in Stage #2, led 142 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then of course took home the trophy. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin was tied for being the 2nd fastest, but take note over the 3rd and 4th segments of the race he ranked as having the fastest car on the track. In terms of Speed Late In A Run, Hamlin ranked #1. In 2022, Hamlin had multiple problems but rallied to finish 9th. In the race, Hamlin had a flat tire and got into the wall while running in 3rd on lap 235, and then later around lap 435 he had a slow pit stop while running in 6th. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 9th, had an 8.7 average running position and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Hamlin was one of the best, but finished an asterisk mark 9th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 65 laps but then in the final Stage on lap 399 while he was running in 2nd, Hamlin had a flat tire. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run.
DraftKings $11,200 / FanDuel $13,500
Further Recommended Reading: Bristol Finish Projections, DraftKings Bristol Scoring Projections, FanDuel Bristol Scoring Projections
2) Ryan Blaney
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Bristol Outlook – Polesitter, Ryan Blaney is an elite performer at Bristol who’ll be a force to be reckoned with. The #12 has arguably been the strongest car on the track, week-in-and-week out in 2024, and I have no doubt he’s poised to have another strong performance. Blaney’s never won here but make no mistake he’s been one of the best, despite what you’ll see in the results column. In practice, Blaney was a stopwatch standout, ranking #1 in terms of 5,10,15,20 and 25 lap averages.
Bristol Track Record Breakdown – “Thunder Valley” hasn’t been kind to Blaney in the Next Gen era but he’s been elite. Since 2018 minus the two Next Gen races, spring 2018 where he crashed while leading (led 100 laps) and 2020 where he crashed while running in 2nd (led 60 laps), Blaney’s average finish is 7.6. Last year, Blaney just wasn’t competitive. In the race, Blaney finished 22nd, had a 17.1 average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Ryan Blaney finished an asterisk mark 30th. The race was plagued with problems for Penske, so I wouldn’t read into that race at all. In the race, problems started early for Blaney when he had a “random” flat tire on lap 90 while running in 5th, and then when he left his pit stall a tire rolled off the #12. Blaney had more problems after that, but you could stick a fork in him at that point. In 2021, Blaney had a great performance. In the race, Blaney finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.1 average running position, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,000
3) Kyle Larson
Start 10th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Bristol Outlook – At Bristol, Kyle Larson will be a favorite and the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Larson won this race in 2021 and “Performance Wise”, Larson should have another couple wins on his resume. The high-line is the fast line, and nobody is better than Larson at running that groove. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Track Record Breakdown – At Bristol, Kyle Larson ranks among the premiere performers and since 2017 minus spring 2019 where he had multiple problems, Larson has a 4.0 average finish, a 4.8 average running position and he’s averaged leading 106.6 laps per race. Over the two races in the Next Gen, Larson is tied for having the 2nd best average finish (3.5) and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks as the 2nd best. Last summer, Larson started in 36th but that wasn’t a problem and he sliced and diced his way up thru the field with relative ease en route to a runner-up. In the race, Larson finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2 and then finished 2nd overall. Additionally, Larson led 20 laps and earned the 4th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Larson was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 4th, with him ranking as having the 2nd fastest car on the track in segments 3 and 4. In 2022, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, led 34 laps and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Green Flag Speed, 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and then 3rd for Total Speed Rankings. In 2021, Larson raced his way to victory lane after a late assist from Chase Elliott. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2.5 average running position, led a race high 175 laps and earned the best driver rating by a wide margin.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,000
