Iowa Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday night, the NASCAR Cup series will be making its long-awaited debut at Iowa for the Iowa Corn 350! Iowa is a .875-mile oval with progressive banking. I view Iowa as a “Shorter Flat Track”, with the very best comp track being Richmond (Shorter-Flat Track Total Speed Rankings since 2023 / 2024).
On Friday, NASCAR held an extended practice session for Iowa. Tires were a major concern with multiple teams having flat tires around the 20-lap mark, so hopefully teams will figure that out come Sunday. Make sure you check out our Iowa Practice Notes, Iowa 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Iowa Practice Speeds and 10 Lap Averages.
Here’s the Iowa Starting Lineup.
NEW for 2024, check out our Iowa “Quick Rankings!”
Iowa Fantasy NASCAR Full Field Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6/ Dominator Potential – High
Iowa Outlook – Polesitter, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat at Iowa. Larson’s one of the premiere shorter-flat track performers in NASCAR and since 2023 on this sub-track type, Larson has a series best 6.8 average finish and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks 5th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Larson’s been strong and over the combined races, Larson has the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and a 9.0 average finish. I’ll note, I view Richmond to have the most correlation and this spring at that venue under the lights, Larson finished 3rd, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, had a 2.7 average running position and led 144 laps. Another attribute you have to like about Larson is that the #5 will be fast and in terms of 2024 Total Speed Rankings In debut races at new tracks in recent years, Larson’s a 2-time winner, having won in debuting races at Nashville and North Wilkesboro. In practice, Larson ranked 3rd for both 10 & 15-lap averages and had the 2nd best 20-lap average.
Iowa Track Record Breakdown – In the Xfinity series at Iowa, Kyle Larson has two starts under his belt and back in 2013 he went 2 for 2 at finishing 5th.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,000
Further Recommended Reading = Iowa Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Iowa Scoring Projections, FanDuel Iowa Scoring Projections
2) Denny Hamlin
Start 12th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Iowa Outlook – At Iowa, look for Denny Hamlin to perform at a high-level and be tough to beat. Hamlin’s arguably the premiere shorter-flat track performer and since 2023 on this sub-track type, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best average finish (8.4). This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and over the last two races he’s come home with results of 1st (Richmond) and 2nd (Gateway). Another variable you also have to like about Hamlin is that the #11 team always shows up with speed an in terms of 2024 “Conventional Track Total Speed Rankings”, Hamlin ranks #1. In practice, Hamlin was fast and ranked 4th in terms of 10 and 15-lap averages.
Iowa Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin has never competed at Iowa in either the Xfinity series or Truck series.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $13,500
3) Brad Keselowski
Start 5th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Iowa Outlook – At Iowa, look for Brad Keselowski to have a strong showing and be a factor. The #6 team is red hot with Keselowski having a 3.5 average finish since Texas minus Sonoma and Dover, and I think there’s every reason to expect the good times to continue. Keselowski recently tested here, so that could prove to be a big advantage. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Keselowski has been elite and over the combined races he has a 5.0 average finish, the 5th best Driver Rating and he’s tied for having the 9th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. Tire management might prove to be key, and Keselowski is one of the best in that discipline, winning Darlington and finishing 3rd at Bristol.
Iowa Track Record Breakdown – Brad Keselowski has been elite at Iowa and in the Xfinity series, he’s a three-time winner, having won the inaugural race way back in 2009 and over his 7-combined starts his average finish is 3rd. Back in 2016 when he last competed here, Keselowski had results of 3rd and 8th.
DraftKings $9,200/ FanDuel $9,000
