Indianapolis Brickyard 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predications / The Low Tier

Daniel Suarez
Indianapolis Fantasy Outlook – 2024 hasn’t been a banner year for Daniel Suarez but he has been running a little better lately so there’s hope. Since Sonoma, he’s finished in the top 22 every race and his 15.5 average finish ranks as the 9th best. Pocono is the best comp track, and Suarez hasn’t been bad there either recently. He just finished 16th at “The Tricky Triangle” and since 2021 minus 2023, his average finish is 11.75. Heading into the weekend, I would view Suarez as about a 20th place driver who has upside.
Indianapolis Track History – At Indy, Daniel Suarez has four starts on his resume with his average finish being 14th. Over his starts, Daniel Suarez has two solid finishes of 11th or better and then two mid-pack finishes of 18th and 20th. Back in 2020 when the track was most recently visited, Suarez drove the junk #96 and I would read into his 20th as being aided by attrition. BJ McLeod finished 22nd, so that says something. In his three starts prior to that, Suarez had finishes of 11th, 18th and 7th.

Erik Jones
Indianapolis Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones is a capable performer at big flat tracks but with the #43’s recent form, you’ll likely want to steer clear of him because he likely has high-teens upside at best. At Indy, Jones has showed potential in all four of his starts but he’s also finished 31st or worse 75% of the time. Last week at Pocono, Jones finished 14th and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking, so he will have some upside for those looking to roll the dice.
Indianapolis Track History – Indy hasn’t been kind to Erik Jones and as you just read, in 3 of his 4 races he’s finished 31st or worse. That said, Jones has certainly shown potential here and ran well. Back in 2020 in the #20, Jones looked sporty but finished an ugly 33rd. In the race, Jones finished 2nd in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 while running around 14th on lap 56 he got into the wall hard. In 2019, Jones showed potential, but finished a misleading 39th. With 2 laps to go in Stage #1 he had contact with Keselowski and totaled his car. Prior to his early exit, Jones spent most of his time running around 5th. In 2018, Jones was very competitive and finished 2nd. In 2017, Jones had a strong car but finished an asterisk mark 31st. On lap 151 he was involved in a wreck that marked the end of his race. “Performance Wise” if his race would’ve been incident free, I think he had a good chance to finish in the top ten. In the race, Jones finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 15th place average running position and earned the 15th best driver rating.

Noah Gragson
Indianapolis Fantasy Outlook – At Indy, I think Noah Gragson is likely about a 20th place driver who has teens upside. The #10 team isn’t running bad right now, and I think that’s essentially his weekly baseline level of performance. Since June minus Pocono, Gragson has a 19.2 average finish. At Pocono, Gragson crashed but in terms of Total Speed Rankings he ranked 18th.
Indianapolis Track History – Back in 2019 in the Xfinity series at Indy, Noah Gragson finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 10th in Stage #2 and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. Gragson has no other Indy starts under his belt.

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