Indianapolis Brickyard 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Indianapolis Motor Speeway for the 30th anniversary of the Brickyard 400. The Indy Oval is a big 2.5-mile flat track where horsepower and track position are king. The Indy Oval hasn’t been raced on since 2020 which was a long time ago now, so I wouldn’t go overboard with track history this weekend. I view Pocono to have the most correlation, so make sure you look back to just last week (Pocono revisited).

On Friday, NASCAR held an extended 50-minute practice session, so teams had time to make adjustments and fine tune. Make sure you check out our Indy Practice Notes, Indy 5, 10 and 15 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet and Indy Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages. 

Here’s the Indy Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup. 

If you’re in a rush, check out our Indy Quick Rankings! 

Indianapolis Brickyard 400 Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 2nd/ Projected Finish Range 1-6/ Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Indy Outlook – In the Indianapolis Brickyard 400, Denny Hamlin will be crown jewel hunting and be tough to beat. Hamlin’s been one of the premiere performers at Indy and I would argue he should’ve won 2 of the last 3 races. Pocono is by far the best comp track and in the Next Gen at “The Tricky Triangle”, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking, 2-wins and a 1.3 average finish. Just last week, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 2nd. Another attribute you have to like about Hamlin at Indy is that just last month he tested here, and his team is said to have put in “Phoenix Level Preparation”, so you better believe the #11 will be a finely tuned machine. In practice, Hamlin was a speed standout and had the 2nd best 5-lap average and the 3rd best 10-lap average.
Indy Track Record Breakdown – Denny Hamlin has been a super-elite performer at the Brickyard. Hamlin’s never kissed the bricks but since 2014 minus 2020 and 2017 (top five contender in both races, misleading results), Hamlin has a 4.2 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 6 every race. Back in 2020, Hamlin came close to victory lane but while leading with 7 laps to go, Hamlin had a flat tire and pounded the wall hard which led to his 28th. In the race, Hamlin finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 19 laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019, Hamlin started in the back in a backup car, but he still had a strong showing and finished 6th. Hamlin even made an unexpected pit stop in that race, so that result is even more impressive. In 2018, Hamlin had a great car and if there wasn’t a late caution he was poised to win. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 3rd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and was tied for leading the most laps (37). In 2017, Hamlin was a top five contender but finished a misleading 17th. Late in the race while he was running in the top five he was caught up in a wreck. In the three races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 4th, 5th and 3rd.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading – Indy Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Indy Scoring Projections, FanDuel Indy Scoring Projections 

2) Tyler Reddick
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Indy Outlook – Tyler Reddick and the #45 team have been showing up with elite Sunday speed and I have no doubt he’ll be a factor in the Brickyard 400. In practice, Reddick was a stopwatch standout and had the best 5 and 10-lap average. One variable I like about Reddick is his momentum. Since Charlotte, Reddick has the 5th best “Conventional Track” Total Speed Ranking and since then minus Iowa his average finish is 4.7. In the Next Gen at Pocono, Reddick has a 3.3 average finish and the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last week at Pocono, Reddick finished 6th. On Sunday, look for Tyler Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Indy Track Record Breakdown – Back in 2020 during his rookie year at RCR driving the #8 in his only Indy Cup start, Tyler Reddick finished 8th. Additionally, Redick had a 16.9 average running position and his Green Flag Speed Ranked 15th, so he likely wasn’t as good as his finish.
DraftKings $8,800/ FanDuel $11,500

3) Kyle Larson
Start 5th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Indy Outlook – The best of the best shine at Indianapolis in the Brickyard 400 and on Sunday, look for Kyle Larson to be a factor to win. The #5 team has elite speed on a weekly basis, and I think he has it again with Larson being fast in practice. On Friday during the 50-minute session, Larson had the 2nd best 10-lap average and the best 15-lap average (Elliott was the only other driver who did a run that long). Last week at Pocono where there’s correlation, Larson was a top five contender but finished a misleading 13th after getting a speeding penalty in the last Stage with about 30 to go while running in 5th.
Indy Track Record Breakdown – Kyle Larson has performed at a high-level at Indy and minus the two races he’s had misleading results his overall average finish is 8.75. Keep in mind, all of those previous races were in the #42. Back in 2019 when he most recently competed, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 5 laps but then crashed in the last Stage which led to his 33rd. On lap 126 which was three laps prior to his demise, Larson was running in 7th. In 2018, Larson finished 14th but he performed better than his result. In the race, Larson earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In 2017, Larson had a tough race and finished 28th after crashing like nearly everyone else. I will note he didn’t run bad. At the time of his demise with 6 laps to go he was running in 12th. In Larson’s three races prior to that, he had results of 5th, 9th and 7th.
DraftKings $10,300/ FanDuel $13,500