Bristol Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Justin Haley
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – If you’re looking down the depth chart, don’t overlook Justin Haley. Haley was a legit top ten contender this spring until he dropped off pace over the closing laps and in 2 of his 4 “Thunder Valley” starts he’s been a top 12 performer (crediting him with this spring). The #51 team is hard to trust right now and on Saturday night, I would view Haley as a 20’s driver who’ll have upside.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol in half his starts, Justin Haley has finished in the top 17. In the two he didn’t, Haley crashed. In the Next Gen over the three races, Haley has the 17th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. This spring, Haley was a legit top ten contender but finished a misleading 17th. In the race, Haley started 32nd, had a 14.7 average running position, was in 9th with 20 to go but then over the closing laps, the #51 dropped way off in terms of pace which led to him finishing 17th. Last year, Haley had a tough race and finished 35th. In the race, Haley finished around 25th in Stage #2, but then early in the last Stage he crashed. In 2022, Haley was pretty solid. In the race, Haley finished 12th, had a 15.6 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking.

John H Nemechek
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – John H Nemechek had a great race this spring at Bristol and finished 6th, which is actually legit, but do you think he can repeat it? I know I have a lot of trouble thinking he can, or even finish in the top 20 for that matter. With Nemechek being such a crash magnet, I would avoid him but note he might have a lot of upside for those looking to roll the dice.
Bristol Track History – John H Nemechek has three starts on his resume at Bristol with his average finish being 13th. This spring, Nemechek looked great. Seriously. In the race, Nemechek started 26th, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 9.2 average running position and then finished 6th. In terms of speed stats, Nemechek ranked 7th for Total Speed Rankings and then 9th for Speed Late In A Run. Back in 2020 when he drove the #38, Nemechek had finishes of 13th and 20th.

Austin Cindric
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – At Bristol, Austin Cindric’s main goal is to avoid having a meltdown and just advance! Cindric’s Bristol average finish is 27.6, so brace yourself. This weekend, I would view him as a 20’s driver who’s risky.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol, Austin Cindric is 3 for 3 at finishing 20th or worse and has a 27.6 average finish. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Cindric ranks 34th, which is last among drivers who competed in all three races. This spring, Cindric didn’t run well, and he was involved in at least one caution when he spun on lap 368. At that time, he was running around 30th and it was largely a harmless spin. When the checkered flag waved, Cindric finished 34th and had a 30th place average running position. Last summer, Cindric didn’t run well, and he was involved in a crash when he ran into Allmendinger who just bounced off the wall on lap 69. At the time of that incident, Cindric was back in the 30’s anyways, so he was likely never going to have a good evening. When the checkered flag waved, Cindric finished 12-laps down in 32nd. In 2022, Cindric finished 7 laps down in 20th. I’ll note, that result is really a testament to the high-attrition rate. In the race, Cindric started in 9th and on lap 83 when he had fallen back to 23rd, he had a sudden flat tire and slammed into the wall hard. Later, Cindric was collected in the lap 277 “Big One.

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