Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Clash Fantasy Outlook – Heading into Clash weekend, I can’t say I have high hopes for Erik Jones making the Main Event. The Legacy #43 program isn’t where it needs to be, and I hope they didn’t put too much off-season time into this exhibition race. Last year, Erik Jones missed the Main Event. In the two Clashes prior to that, Jones had results of 27th (2023) and 4th (2022). Last year at Martinsville, Jones had results of 19th (fall) and 12th (spring). Overall in the Next Gen at “The Paper Clip”, Jones ranks 18th in terms of Speed Rankings and 26th in terms of Next Gen Average Finishes (23.8).

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Michael McDowell
Clash Fantasy Outlook – In the Clash, I have low expectations for Michael McDowell in his new Spire #71. The odds are likely stacked against him from making the “Main Event”, and if he does, he’ll likely be a bottom-half-of-the-field driver. McDowell’s previously made all three LA Clashes, but to show for it, he has a 19.7 average finish and is 3 for 3 at finishing 16th or worse. Last year, McDowell had a disappointing evening and finished 19th. I’ll note, McDowell was spun out on lap 139 while running in 14th, so his race wasn’t exactly incident-free. Additionally, McDowell had a 16.2 average running position. In 2023, McDowell had a tough race and finished 24th. McDowell advanced through the Last Chance Qualifier, which led to “fuel DNF issues” since he ran out. NASCAR had some sort of fuel rule where teams weren’t allowed to refuel after the Heat Races. On lap 136, just prior to his fuel issue, McDowell was running in 16th. In 2022, McDowell finished a lap down in 16th. At Martinsville in the Next Gen, McDowell ranks 26th in terms of Next Gen Average Finishes (23.5) and then 27th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. In 2024 at Martinsville, McDowell had clunker results of 21st and 33rd.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Clash Fantasy Outlook – I can’t say I have high-level confidence that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will make the “Main Event,” but he’s made it twice and is 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens with a 14.5 average finish. Last year, Stenhouse finished 16th and then back in 2022 in his other appearance he finished 13th. If Stenhouse does make the “Big Show” once again, I would just look for him to be a bottom-half-of-the-field driver and call it good. At Martinsville in the Next Gen, Stenhouse ranks 30th in terms of Speed Rankings.

Noah Gragson
Clash Fantasy Outlook – Noah Gragson has previously made two LA Clashes, and he’s stunk it up to the tune of a 17th place average finish, which is quite bad for this small field. Last year, I think something was wrong with the #10 because Gragson was super bad en route to finishing 20th. In 2023, Gragson wasn’t much better and finished 14th. If Gragson does make the Clash in his new Front Row #4, I would look for him to be a bottom-half-of-the-field driver.

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