Daytona 500 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings
Kyle Larson
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – Kyle Larson has a really bad superspeedway racing reputation, and I would typically avoid him like the plague, but he has a knack for the Daytona 500. Since 2016 in the “Great American Race” minus late crashes in both 2022 and 2023, Larson has a 10.9 average finish. Last year at big superspeedways, Larson had the 5th best Driver Rating, the 5th best average running position (14.8) and the 7th best average finish (14.3). If Larson can avoid trouble, I think he has a good chance to come home with a good result.
Daytona Track History – Daytona hasn’t been a bright spot on the schedule for Kyle Larson but as you just read, he does seem to have boosted upside in the Daytona 500 and in 6 of the last 9, he’s finished between 7th to 12th. In the Next Gen at Daytona, Larson has the 27th best average finish (24.3) and in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished 18th or worse. In 2024, Larson performed well in both races. Last summer, Larson finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 5 laps, had a 10.1 average running position, was running in 2nd on lap 150 but then on lap 151 he was damaged in the McDowell airborne crash, leading to his asterisk mark 21st. In last year’s Daytona 500, Larson really liked his car, and he was quite racy. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, led 7 laps, earned the 8th best Driver Rating, had the 9th best Average Running Position and then finished 11th. In summer 2023, Larson crashed during the last lap of Stage #2 and went on to finish 27th. In the 2023 Daytona 500, Larson nearly won but right at the end he crashed which led to his 18th. In the race, Larson had an 11th place average running position, led 6 laps and was running in 2nd at the time of the final restart for overtime. In summer 2022, Larson’s engine blew up on lap 4 and he finished 37th. In the 2022 Daytona 500, Larson finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, had a 13th place average running position, was running in 11th on lap 189 but then on lap 190 he was caught up in a multi-car accident that led to his 32nd.
AJ Allmendinger
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – AJ Allmendinger is a driver down the depth chart who’s consistently delivered in the results column at Daytona. At this big superspeedway, Allmendinger’s 2 for 2 at finishing 6th in the Next Gen in the Daytona 500 and overall in 6 of his last 7 races he’s finished in the top ten. I can’t say I’m overly bullish on him but it’s hard to argue with his results.
Daytona Track History – AJ Allmendinger has been an ace at Daytona and in 6 of his last 7 races he’s finished in the top ten. Last year in the “500” in his only 2024 start here, Allmendinger avoided all the chaos and finished 6th, despite getting a pit penalty under green. In summer 2023 in his next most recent race, Allmendinger had his worst Daytona result in years and finished 29th. Allmendinger looked sporty at times and even led 8 laps but I’m theorizing he was damaged in the lap #95 “Big One”, despite not being listed in it. On lap 95 he was running in 9th, but right after that he was mired back around 30th for the remainder of the race. Over his five Daytona races prior to that which weren’t consecutively, Allmendinger had results of 6th (2023-500), 3rd, 10th, 8th and 3rd.
Chase Briscoe
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – In Chase Briscoe’s #19 JGR debut, look for him to put on a show and potentially be a factor. Briscoe has a 50% crash rate here in the Next Gen, but in one of those crashes he was subjectively the best and his Next Gen non-Daytona DNF average finish is 9.0. Last year between the combined Daytona races, Briscoe’s 12.0 average finish ranked as the 7th best (among drivers who competed in both races). In 2024 at big superspeedways minus Talladega in the fall (crashed), Briscoe went 3 for 3 at finishing between 10th to 14th (12th place average finish).
Daytona Track History – At Daytona in the Next Gen, Chase Briscoe has been 50% good and 50% bad. In 2024, Briscoe had a solid season (12.0 average finish) and swept the top 14. Last summer, Briscoe had a quiet race and finished 14th. He didn’t do anything flashy (23rd best Driver Rating) but survival was more than half the battle. In last year’s Daytona 500, Briscoe escaped with a 10th. That said, Briscoe had a 17.9 average running position and was in 22nd on lap 190 which was before the “Big One” ensued. In summer 2023, Briscoe had a hot rod that might’ve been the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 30th. In the race, Briscoe won the pole, led a race high 67 laps, was the leader before the final green flag pit cycle which shuffled him back but then late in the race on lap 156 while running in the teens he crashed in the “Ryan Preece Crash” which also marked the end of his day. In terms of Driver Rating, Briscoe ranked 7th. In the three races prior to that, Briscoe had results of 35th, 31st and then 3rd.
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