Atlanta Ambetter Health 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Justin Haley
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley has been a solid performer at Atlanta, given his tier. Haley’s finished in the top 12 in 4 of the 6 races and his combined average finish on the new surface is a respectable 13.3. Haley is often at his best at superspeedways, so he’ll have upside for those looking to roll the dice.
Atlanta Track History – Justin Haley has been solid at Atlanta and in 4 of the 6 races, he’s finished between 7th to 12th. Last summer, Haley was solid to close out and finished 12th. Additionally, Haley earned the 14th best Driver Rating and had a 17.3 average running position. Last spring, Haley finished 20th. On lap #2, Haley was caught up in the “Big One”, but it didn’t seem to really impact him too much since he ran pretty well at times and was even in 8th with 40 to go. For the afternoon, Haley had a 19.1 average running position. In summer 2023 in his old ride, Haley was solid. In the race, Haley finished 7th in Stage #2, finished 8th overall and had a 13th place average running position. To earn that good result, Haley had to charge hard at the end since he pitted during the Stage #2 caution (race that ended early due to the rain). In spring 2023, Haley had an un-notable afternoon and when the checkered flag waved, he finished 22nd and had a 19th place average running position. In 2022, Haley had results of 7th and 11th.

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Todd Gilliland
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland is a quality superspeedway racer who’s deep on the depth chart who should be on your radar. Gilliland was a standout performer last spring (misleading result) but I’ll note his track record isn’t anything to get excited about, with three results around the mid-teens and then three results around the mid 20’s.
Atlanta Track History – At Atlanta, Todd Gilliland has three finishes around the mid-teens and then three finishes around the mid 20’s with his average finish being 21.3. Last summer, Gilliland showed potential but finished 27th. In the race, Gilliland had a 13.3 average running position, was in 9th with 20 to go, was in 19th at the start of overtime but then he was collected in the overtime “Big One.” Last spring, Gilliland was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 26th. In the race, Gilliland started 4th, finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, led a race high 58 laps, had an 8.5 average running position, was in 9th on lap 239 but then on lap 246 just after the race went back to green following a caution, Gilliland had a loose wheel/flat tire or something because he made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap, leading to his 26th. Over the three races prior to that, Gilliland had respectable results of 16th, 15th and 17th.

Ryan Preece
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Preece could be a driver to watch at Atlanta but given his track record, there’s certainly safer options out there to pick from. RFK cars are strong at superspeedways, so he’ll be looking to make the most of the opportunity in his new ride.
Atlanta Track History – Ryan Preece swept the teens last year (17th place average finish) and over his four combined starts his average finish is 21.5. Last summer, Preece didn’t look good, but he avoided trouble which is half the battle. In the race, Preece finished 18th, had a 28.9 average running position and earned the 30th best Driver Rating. Last spring, Preece finished 16th and had a 23.3 average running position. In summer 2023, Preece looked good but finished 24th. In the race, Preece finished 10th in Stage #2 and had a 14.3 average running position. That Stage #2 result is a great reference point in terms of performance because that led to a huge split in pit strategy, between those who pitted and those who stayed out hoping for rain. Preece pitted and that dropped him back to about 20th. Preece rallied back up to 10th on lap 177, but then on lap 179 him and Bubba Wallace spun, and the race never went back to green after that due to rain. In spring 2023, Preece finished 16 laps down in 28th due to electrical issues.

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