Martinsville Cook Out 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I can’t say I’m expecting a lot out of Erik Jones and a result around 20th is likely in the cards. In the Next Gen, Jones has a 19.2 average finish and the 26th best Next Gen Speed Ranking.
Martinsville Track History – Erik Jones has a 20.2 average finish at Martinsville over the last five races, and I would expect another finish around that range. Last fall, Jones finished right around that mark in 19th. Additionally, Jones had a 22.0 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Jones was sporty and had his best non-superspeedway performance of the year. In the race, Jones finished 12th, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 16.5 average running position. In fall 2023, Jones was mid-pack. In the race, Jones finished 21st, had an 18.9 average running position and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Jones was quite bad and finished 31st. In the race, Jones had a 27.7 average running position and the 30th best Total speed Ranking. In 2022, Jones had a pair of teen finishes, finishing 18th in the fall and then 13th in the spring.

Daniel Suarez
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I have low expectations for Daniel Suarez and to play it safe, I would view him as a high-teens or worse driver. Suarez had some success here early in his career but in 10 of the last 11 races he’s finished 17th or worse.
Martinsville Track History – As you just read, Martinsville typically doesn’t play out well for Daniel Suarez and in the Next Gen he’s finished 17th or worse in 5 of the 6 races and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 17th. Last fall, Suarez had a pretty status quo Martinsville afternoon for himself, finishing 23rd and having a 22.6 average running position. Last spring, Suarez started 21st, had a 19.2 average running position, ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 22nd. I’ll note, Suarez did lead 13 laps via pit strategy, but those certainly weren’t due to “Performance.” In fall 2023, Suarez showed teens potential but crashed early in the last Stage. On lap 271 during the restart for the final Stage he was in 16th but then on lap 274 he crashed which marked the end of his race, leading to his 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Suarez ranked 17th. Over the two races prior to that, Suarez had finishes of 17th and 12th.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – Martinsville likely won’t play out well for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. In the Next Gen, Stenhouse has finished 19th or worse in 5 of the 6 races, has a 20.8 average finish and ranks 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Going further back, Stenhouse has finished between 15th to 22nd in 8 of the last 11 races, so that’s quite a finish trend.
Martinsville Track History – At Martinsville in the Next Gen, Stenhouse has finished in the 20’s in 5 of the 6 races and has a 20.8 average finish. Last fall, Stenhouse was a low 20’s performer, finishing 20th, having a 21.2 average running position and ranking 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Stenhouse was pretty uncompetitive. In the race, Stenhouse finished 29th, had the 28th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 23.6 average running position. I’ll note, Stenhouse did get a speeding penalty, but it was under yellow during the Stage #1 caution, and he was in 22nd at that time. In fall 2023, Stenhouse finished 19th and that result does a pretty good job reflecting his performance considering his average running position was 20.9. In spring 2023, Stenhouse finished 8th which marks his best result here ever, but I wouldn’t say he was as good as his finish. In the race, Stenhouse had a 16.7 average running position, the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and was in 16th on lap 282 which is a great reference point before wild things started to happen in the last 100 laps. In 2022, Stenhouse had results of 23rd and 27th.

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