Darlington Goodyear 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin has been a dominant performer at Darlington who’s always tough to beat. Hamlin’s a 4-time winner who’s finished in the top five 52% of the time, in the top ten 72% of the time and he has the best average finish in the series (8.2). Tire management is always key here, and I would argue Hamlin’s the premiere performer at that discipline. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington. Hamlin’s had asterisk mark results in 4 of the 6 Next Gen races, but he hasn’t lacked when it comes to “Performance.” Despite having quite a few problems in the Next Gen, Hamlin still has the 3rd best Driver Rating, the 3rd best average running position, the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking and the 5th best average finish (11.8). Last fall, Hamlin was stout and finished 7th. That said, that underrates him and “Performance Wise”, I would say he was likely the 2nd best. With 40 laps to go before late carnage broke out, Hamlin was up to 2nd. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 7th, had a 6.4 average running position and earned the 4th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked #1 for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Hamlin wasn’t his usual competitive self, but he still finished 4th. Additionally, Hamlin had an 8.3 average running position and the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2023, Hamlin was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 25th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 177 laps but in the last Stage while leading (just before the green flag pit cycle), Hamlin had a loose wheel and made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap back to 30th. Later, Hamlin was also involved in an accident on lap 331, but he was way back in the mid 20’s at that time anyways. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin finished 12th but personally, I wouldn’t read into his afternoon too much. In the race, Hamlin was in 7th on lap 35, but then on lap 38 he radioed his team that his car took off on him and he got into the wall. In 2022, Hamlin finished 2nd in the fall and was a top five contender in the spring but finished 21st. In 2021, Hamlin had results of 1st and 5th.

Kyle Larson
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Larson’s a recent winner (summer 2023) and in many of the recent races, he’s been a factor. Over Larson’s last six incident free Darlington races, he’s 6 for 6 at finishing in the top 4. Larson’s had quite a few misleading results here in the Next Gen but in terms of speed, Larson has the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking. One attribute you have to love about Larson is his tire management prowess. Larson just recently won at Homestead and since 2023 at high-wear intermediates, Larson has the best Total Speed Ranking, having ranked #1 in 3 of the last 6 races. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Kyle Larson is one of the premiere performers at Darlington and in the Next Gen, Larson has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, the 4th best Driver Rating and “Performance Wise”, he’s been a factor to win 3 of the last 4. Last fall, Larson was the class of the field but finished 4th, after losing the lead during a late restart. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 263 laps, had a 2.0 average running position and earned the best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Larson was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson started 6th, won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 15 laps but then in the last Stage his afternoon went south. On lap 235 while running in 3rd, Larson tagged the wall hard and then immediately came to pit road. Then shortly after that on lap 253 while running in 6th, Larson had a flat tire and crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th. In 2023, Larson could’ve pulled out the broom for the season. In fall 2023, Larson started 18th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 4.5 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating, led 55 laps, and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2023, Larson likely had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Larson started 7th but then during the first caution around lap 40 he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 8th back to 23rd. Larson battled back and then drove up to finish 3rd in Stage #2. Following the final green flag pit cycle, Larson was the leader and was the driver to beat until late mayhem ensued. Larson’s demise happened during a restart with 6 to go when him and Chastain got into each other and crashed while battling for the lead.

Tyler Reddick
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Look for Tyler Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Reddick’s been flirting with victory lane in many of the recent Darlington races and I think he has a good chance to take home the trophy. Reddick was arguably the best last spring and in 3 of the 6 Next Gen races he’s finished in either 2nd or 3rd. In the Next Gen, Reddick ranks 2nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings and minus the last two spring races where he’s had asterisk mark results, his average finish is 4.25.
Darlington Track History – Tyler Reddick has been elite at Darlington and in the Next Gen, Reddick has the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating, the 2nd best Average Running Position and then a 11.8 average finish which underrates him via two highly misleading results. Last fall, Reddick had a “Flu Race”, but it wasn’t on the MJ level and he faded back as the race went along. In the race, Reddick finished 10th, had a 6.1 average running position and earned the 5th best Driver Rating. Last spring, Reddick was the class of the field. In the race, Reddick started on the pole, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 174 laps but then finished an asterisk mark 32nd after colliding with Chris Buescher on lap 264 while battling for the lead. In terms of speed, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2023, the #45 was fast and Reddick finished runner-up. In the race, Reddick started 3rd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a race best 2.6 average running position and led 90 laps. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 2nd for Total Speed Rankings and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2023, Reddick finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 11th in Stage #2, was running in 8th on lap 278 but then during the ensuing restart, he was collected in the carnage which led to his asterisk mark 22nd. In 2022, Reddick had results of 2nd and 3rd.

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