Bristol Food City 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – I very loosely like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Bristol and outside of superspeedways, I would hail “Thunder Valley” as his best track. That said in terms of results, he’s been abysmal for an extended period of time and in 9 of the last 10 races he’s finished 20th or worse. Prior to his ongoing cold streak, Stenhouse finished in the top ten in 6 of the 9 races. That said, Stenhouse was quite bad last summer (27th) and in the Next Gen over the combined races, Stenhouse has a 25.8 average finish and ranks 27th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Bristol Track History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a strong performer at Bristol but times have been super lean as you read above. Last summer, Stenhouse stunk it up. In the race, Stenhouse finished 27th, had a 29.3 average running position and then ranked 31st for Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Stenhouse finished 33rd after being involved in two cautions. On lap 170, Stenhouse was in 19th but then just after that on lap 176 he was involved in his first caution and he never recovered from that. In 2023, Stenhouse ran a great race and had his first good result in years. In the race, Stenhouse finished 10th, had a 14.7 average running position, ranked 11th for Speed Late In A Run and fielded the 8th fastest car on the track over the final segment of the race. In 2022, Stenhouse had a short race and finished 33rd. In the race, Stenhouse showed low double-digit potential, was running in 13th on lap 277 but then later that lap Suarez got loose and ran into him which caused a “Big One.”

Carson Hocevar
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Carson Hocevar might have some upside at Bristol. He’s not afraid to ruffle feathers and he’s shown potential here previously on the Cup level. That said, Hocevar hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire recently and heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a high-teens plus driver who might have upside.
Bristol Track History – Carson Hocevar has three starts on his resume at Bristol and his average finish is 18.7. Last summer, Hocevar was a mid to high-teens driver. In the race, Hocevar started 7th, had a 15.7 average running position and then finished 18th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hocevar ranked 13th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Hocevar had a tough race and finished 27th. That said, Hocevar was involved in the first caution so I wouldn’t read too much into that afternoon. Additionally, Hocevar had a 24.7 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023 in the #42 in a pre-rookie start, Hocevar ran a great race. In the race, Hocevar started 16th, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 12.6 average running position, earned the 11th best Driver Rating and then finished 11th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hocevar ranked 8th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking.

Todd Gilliland
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – At Bristol, Todd Gilliland might have a high-teens showing in him but that’s the extent of his upside. Gilliland was quite bad last summer (32nd) and overall in the Next Gen, Gilliland has a 23rd place average finish and a 26.5 average Speed Ranking.
Bristol Track History – Bristol has not been a bright spot on the schedule for Todd Gilliland with his average finish being 23rd. Last summer, Gilliland had his worst Bristol race and finished 32nd. Unfortunately, Gilliland was quite bad and I can’t classify that as misleading. In the race, Gilliland had a 29.9 average running position and ranked 29th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Gilliland had an afternoon to forget, and he seemed to burn off tires pretty quickly. In the race, Gilliland had a 19.6 average running position, the 23rd best Speed Ranking and then finished 26th. In the two races prior to that, Gilliland ran better, finishing 16th in 2023 and then 18th in 2022.

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