Talladega Jack Links 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon is a 2-time big superspeedway winner, but he’s super risky and going back to 2023 at big superspeedways, Dillon’s only finished in the top ten once and has a series worst 28.7 average finish (among drivers who competed in every race). In the Next Gen at Talladega, Dillon’s finished in the top 13 50% of the time but in the other 50% he’s finished 30th or worse with his Next Gen Average Finish sitting at 20.7.
Talladega Track History –Austin Dillon has historically been solid at Talladega and since 2019 minus last spring, both 2023 races and spring 2020, Dillon has an 9.3 average finish, and he’s had a result in the top 14 every race. That said, there’s a lot of minuses in that last sentence so he’s not exactly a safe pick. Last fall, Dillon dodged the carnage and finished 8th. There was nothing special about that performance but avoiding trouble is half the battle. Last spring, Dillon had his recent status quo afternoon and finished 30th. In the race, Dillon had a 17.9 average running position but was flatlined running in the 30’s to close out the race. In fall 2023, Dillon was minding his own business but was then caught up in a crash on lap 162 when Brad Keselowski was pushing Hocevar. In the race, Dillon finished 4th in Stage #2 and was running around 20th at the time of his demise. In spring 2023, Dillon didn’t show much, and he crashed on lap 141 which led to his 38th. At the time of his demise, he was way back in the 30’s. In fall 2022, Dillon finished a solid 13th. In spring 2022, Dillon finished 2nd after closing strong. In 2021, Dillon had results of 8th and 11th.

John H Nemechek
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – The draft/attrition are great equalizers so there’s even hope for John H Nemechek at Talladega. In fact, Nemechek actually has a 50% Talladega top ten finish rate. That said, those were back in 2020 and last year, he finished in the low 30’s twice. Just consider John H Nemechek to be a coin flip driver but be prepared to get burned. To start the year at Daytona, Nemechek finished 5th.
Talladega Track History – Last year at Talladega, John H Nemechek went 2 for 2 at finishing in the low 30’s. Last fall, Nemechek finished 31st after getting caught up in the “Blaney Big One” to end Stage #2 (nothing special about his performance) and then in the spring, Nemechek looked sporty and led 20 laps, but he also crashed, ruining it for nearly all the Toyota’s in their manufacturer mini-pack which led to his 33rd. Back in 2020 when he drove the #38, Nemechek had a pair of 8th place finishes.

Riley Herbst
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Riley Herbst isn’t a complete rookie at Talladega and the draft/ attrition offer a rare opportunity for him to sneak in an abnormally good result. Herbst has a 14.5 Talladega average finish over his previous two starts and in 2025, Herbst is 2 for 2 at finishing 17th at the two superspeedways visited.
Talladega Track History – In Cup at Talladega, Riley Herbst already has two starts under his belt. Back in 2023, Herbst had finishes of 9th and 20th, which have his Talladega average finish set at 14.5. In the Xfinity series at Talladega, Herbst had finishes of 2nd and 3rd last year and in 4 of his last 5 lower series starts he’s finished in the top 11.

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