Kansas AdventHealth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Kansas Fantasy Outlook –It’s likely wise to have mid-pack expectations with Erik Jones and still be prepared for him to underperform. I know he just ran well at Texas (5th), but I view Las Vegas to be the better comp track and at Sin City this spring, Jones finished 27th (17.3 average running position, 22nd best Total Speed Ranking). At Kansas in the Next Gen, Jones has finished 21st or worse in 4 of his 5 races, has a 24th place average finish and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 21st.
Kansas Track History – Kansas hasn’t been pretty for Erik Jones and going back to 2020 #2, he’s finished 20th or worse in 7 of the last 8 races. Last fall, Jones had an ugly showing and finished 35th. I’ll note, Jones did bring out a caution when he spun on lap 98, but he was back in 31st when that happened. Additionally, Jones had a 32.8 average running position and ranked 29th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Jones missed the race due to injury. In fall 2023, Jones had a stellar showing. In the race, Jones finished 6th in Stage #2 and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, he was in 6th before the late caution came out. Additionally, Jones had a 9.4 average running position and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Jones finished 21st, had a 21.6 average running position and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2022, Jones struggled and finished 29th. In spring 2022, Jones looked sporty and showed potential but finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Jones finished 8th in Stage #1 (used some late pit strategy in Stage #1), but then his afternoon went south. During that Stage caution, his team couldn’t get off his wheel that dropped him 7-laps down, dooming his afternoon.

Noah Gragson
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – I have mid-pack expectations with Noah Gragson at Kansas. He might have a little upside since he finished 9th last spring, but he didn’t back it up in the fall with his 18th, and in terms of “Performance” he’s been about 20th good in 4 of his 5 races. In the Next Gen at Kansas, Gragson has an 18.4 average finish and ranks 20th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas in the Next Gen, Noah Gragson is 4 for 5 at finishing 18th or worse, and in three of those races he’s finished in exactly 18th, so that seems like a safe range to view him as. Last fall, Gragson finished 18th, had a 19.9 average running position and ranked 19th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Gragson had a great race. In the race, Gragson finished 9th in Stage #1, finished 10th in Stage #2, had a 9.8 average running position and then finished 9th overall. In terms of speed stats, Gragson had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 14th for Speed Late In A run. In spring 2023 in his next most recent race, Gragson was realistically about a 20th place performer, but he finished an asterisk mark 29th. On lap 206 while running in 20th, Gragson had a flat tire and spun. In 2022 in the #16, Gragson had results of 18th and 18th.

Corey Heim 
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Corey Heim will be back in Cup at Kansas driving a fourth 23XI car. Heim is a talented driver, but I don’t expect his #67 23XI car to be close to the level of the #45 or #23. Heading into the weekend, I would view Heim as about a high-teens driver at best.
Kansas Track History – Last Spring in the #43 in place of an injured Erik Jones, Heim finished 22nd and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking.

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