Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Zane Smith
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – At Michigan, I would view Zane Smith as a high-teens driver who has marginal upside. That’s essentially been the #38’s weekly baseline level of performance at high-speed intermediate tracks and for the season at these venues minus Charlotte, Smith has an 18.7 average finish and an 18.7 average running position.
Michigan Track History – Last year at Michigan, Zane Smith walked away with a solid 7th. That said, Smith had a 22.7 average running position, ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and was running in 15th on lap 190 before two overtimes broke out, so don’t get too carried away with his good finish.

Austin Dillon
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon has had some solid showings at Michigan and in 6 of the last 11 races, he’s finished in the top 14. That said, his last two finishes are slightly north of that range. In the Next Gen at MIS, Dillon’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the teens, has a 16.3 average finish and ranks 21st in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. This year at high-speed intermediates, Dillon is 4 for 4 at finishing between 19th to 26th, and as a result I would expect more of the same. On Sunday, look for Dillon to be a 20’s driver who’ll have teens upside.
Michigan Track History – Austin Dillon has been solid at MIS and as you read above, in 6 of the last 11 races he’s finished in the top 14. Last year, Dillon finished 17th, had a 16.9 average running position and had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Dillon had a pretty forgettable performance. In the race, Dillon finished 19th, had a 19.3 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Dillon finished 13th, had a 17.1 average running position and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking.

Michael McDowell
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – At Michigan, Michael McDowell has historically been a 20’s performer. His all-time best finish is a 19th and over the last twelve races he’s finished between 19th to 29th. That said, his best result did come last year but it’s hard to get excited about a 19th. This year at high-speed intermediates, McDowell has the 22nd best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and 1-top ten, but that came at Charlotte in the most recent race. Heading into the weekend, I would view McDowell as about a mid-pack driver with marginal upside.
Michigan Track History – In the Next Gen at Michigan, Michael McDowell has a 23.7 average finish and ranks 34th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, McDowell had his best Michigan performance to date and finished 19th. Additionally, McDowell had a 24.8 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Driver Rating. In 2023, McDowell finished 24th and had a 23.3 average running position. In 2022, McDowell was collected in the early “Competition Caution Restart Big One” and limped home to finish 28th.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier