Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Michigan who’ll be tough to beat in the Firekeepers Casino 400. Hamlin’s been a standout performer, and he’s shown up with elite speed at the last two high-speed intermediate tracks, having a 3.0 average speed ranking (Kansas and Charlotte, I don’t view Nashville for having correlation). If Hamlin can avoid trouble, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – At Michigan, Denny Hamlin is a 2-time winner who’s performed at an elite-level. Over the last seven Michigan races, Hamlin has 2-runner-ups and his average finish is a series best 4.3. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has a series best 5.0 average finish, he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top ten every race and his Next Gen Speed Ranking is the 2nd best. Last year, Hamlin finished 9th but you can get out an asterisk mark for that result. The #11 looked to be a rocket but while running in 2nd on lap 38, Hamlin spun into the grass and that put him behind for the rest of the afternoon. In 2023, Hamlin finished 3rd despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 13th, finished 8th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 around lap 105 while running in 5th, Hamlin had trouble getting going again after a pit stop and that dropped him to the back. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 2nd. In 2022, Hamlin arguably had the best car, but finished 3rd due to his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 5.3 average running position, led 38 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 158 but then during the Bell/Chastain caution he was penalized for too many men over the wall which dropped him back to the high-teens. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Green Flag Speed, #1 for Speed Late In A Run and was tied for #1 in Total Speed Rankings. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 5th, 2nd, 6th and 2nd.

Kyle Larson
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Michigan and in the Firekeepers Casino 400, the road to victory lane will likely go thru him. At MIS, Larson’s a 3-time winner and in the four races prior to last year where he might’ve just been the best but crashed, Larson had a 5.0 average finish. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Larson’s been the class of the field. Larson had a tough evening at Charlotte but over the other three races at high-speed intermediates, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking every race and the best Driver Rating every race. I view Kansas to have the most correlation and at that venue, Larson led 221 laps and absolutely smoked the field en route to victory lane. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Larson ranks among the premiere performers at Michigan. He’s a three-time winner and over the last five races, he’s 4 for 5 at finishing between 3rd to 7th. Last year, the #5 was a rocket but Larson crashed and finished 34th. In the race, Larson led the most laps (41), was the leader on lap 112 but then during a caution just after that he got shuffled back into traffic due to pit strategy and then proceeded to wreck. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 2nd. In 2023, the #5 was strong and Larson finished 5th despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2 but then early in the last Stage following the Bowman caution around lap 130, he pitted twice due to fear of getting damaged. Following that, Larson drove up from about 30th to his 5th place finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 11th. In 2022, Larson had a strong showing and finished 7th, but I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then during that Stage caution he was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the low 20’s. The #5 didn’t lack speed and in the race, Larson had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, the 5th best Green Flag Speed and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2021, Larson started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led a race high 70 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then finished 3rd overall.

Ryan Blaney
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Michigan is Ford Country, with the Blue Oval having won 9 of the last 10 races and on Sunday, look for Ryan Blaney to be fast and be a factor. Blaney raced his way to victory lane here in 2021 and in 7 of the last 10 races he’s finished in the top ten. Over the last four races, Blaney’s 8.3 average finish ranks as the 2nd best among drivers who competed in every race. This year at high-speed intermediates, Blaney has shown elite speed, ranking 6th for Track Type Total Speed Rankings but he’s had quite a few problems, leading to his misleading 19.8 average finish.
Michigan Track History – Ryan Blaney has been stout at Michigan and since 2018 minus a 2020 crash while battling for the lead and a 2019 #2 misleading result, Blaney has a 7.4 average finish. In the Next Gen, Blaney ranks 9th for Speed and his 10.7 average finish ranks as the 7th best. Last year, Blaney won Stage #1, finished 10th in Stage #2, had a 10.4 average running position but then finished an asterisk mark 18th. On lap 190 before overtime madness, Blaney was running in 8th but then on the last lap in overtime #2, Blaney had some sort of issue while running in 7th which caused him to fade dramatically. In terms of speed stats, Blaney had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Blaney finished 9th and had a 9.8 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked 9th for Total Speed Rankings and 10th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Blaney started in 24th but raced his way to a 5th place finish. In the race, Blaney didn’t place in the two opening Stages and had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking. That said, Blaney ranked 6th in terms of 4th segment speed, so he was at his best at the end. In 2021, Blaney didn’t have the best car, but he took home the trophy. In the race, Blaney didn’t place in the opening two Stages, had a 9.3 average running position, led 8 laps and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Late mayhem and a great late restart propelled him to victory lane.

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