Pocono The Great American Getaway 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Pocono Fantasy Outlook –  At Pocono, I would view Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as about a 20th place driver who’ll have mid to high teens upside.  At “The Tricky Triangle”, Stenhouse has a 22.3 career average finish and ranks 21st in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Pocono Track History – In 5 of the last 7 Pocono races, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished between 7th to 18th with his average finish over that stretch being 14.4 minus a misleading 2024 and 2021 #2. In the Next Gen, Stenhouse has had results all across the board with his average finish being 19.3. Last year, Stenhouse had a tough race and crashed, leading to his 33rd. On lap 120, Stenhouse was in 26th but then later that lap during a restart he was collected in the “Corey LaJoie wrecking Kyle Busch carnage.” For the afternoon, Stenhouse ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 23rd place average running position despite his early exit. “Performance Wise”, I would say he clearly looked like a 20’s performer. In 2023, Stenhouse had his best Pocono race ever and notched his only top ten over his 21 starts and came home 7th. In the race, Stenhouse started 22nd, had a 19.4 average running position and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, Stenhouse did use some pit strategy late but he hung tough in the top ten to close out. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Stenhouse ranked 26th. In 2022 en route to an 18th, Stenhouse had a 17.2 average running position and the 18th best Total Speed Ranking

Austin Dillon
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – It’s always hard to foresee something good happening if you pick Austin Dillon and it’s typically best to just have mid-pack expectations, which is what I have. At Pocono, Dillon has a 19.1 average finish over his 19 starts and he’s only cracked the top ten once which was a 10th. Heading into the weekend, I would view Dillon as about a 20th place driver who’ll have marginal upside.
Pocono Track History – Austin Dillon has actually been consistent at Pocono and in 13 of his 19 starts, he’s finished between 10th to 19th. I’ll note over the last two, he’s finished north of that mark. In the Next Gen over the last three in terms of speed, Dillon ranks 25th. Last year, Dillon was a dud. In the race, Dillon finished 23rd, had a 26.4 average running position, earned the 28th best Driver Rating and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Dillon looked poised to have a good afternoon but on lap 105 while running in 11th, Dillon crashed. When the checkered flag waved, Dillon finished 34th. In 2022, Dillon had his only Pocono top ten and came home 10th but of course it took Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin disqualifications to accomplish it. In the race, Dillon had a 16.4 average running position and the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021 during the doubles, Dillon had results of 13th and 21st.

Shane van Gisbergen
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – Shane van Gisbergen has been showing improvement on the track in recent races, so I’ll be hopeful and view him as a top 20 driver but by that, I think he’ll likely be around 20th place good and that’s likely a best case scenario.
Pocono Track History – SVG has never competed at Pocono on the Cup level. Last year in the Xfinity series, SVG finished 31st and had a 21st place average running position.

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