EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta) Quaker State 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Justin Haley
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – The draft and attrition are great equalizers, so Justin Haley might have some hope for finishing abnormally well. That said, I think viewing him as a mid-pack at best is really the right play. At Atlanta in the Next Gen, Haley has a 15.7 average finish. I’ll note, Haley has historically been better in summer Atlanta races and over the three his 9.0 average finish ranks as the 5th best in the series among drivers who competed in every race.
Atlanta Track History – Justin Haley has been a solid performer at Atlanta, given his tier. Haley’s finished in the top 12 in 4 of the 7 races and his combined average finish on the new surface is a respectable 14.9. As you read above, he’s historically been at his best here in the summer and in this particular event he’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top 12 and has a 9.0 average finish. This spring, Haley didn’t have a good afternoon. In the race, Haley finished 24th and had a 26.2 average running position. Last summer, Haley was solid to close out and finished 12th. Additionally, Haley earned the 14th best Driver Rating and had a 17.3 average running position. Last spring, Haley finished 20th. On lap #2, Haley was caught up in the “Big One”, but it didn’t seem to really impact him too much since he ran pretty well at times and was even in 8th with 40 to go. For the afternoon, Haley had a 19.1 average running position. In summer 2023 in his old ride, Haley was solid. In the race, Haley finished 7th in Stage #2, finished 8th overall and had a 13th place average running position. To earn that good result, Haley had to charge hard at the end since he pitted during the Stage #2 caution (race that ended early due to the rain). In spring 2023, Haley finished 22nd. In 2022, Haley had results of 7th and 11th.

Corey LaJoie
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – Corey LaJoie will be returning to action at Atlanta in a Rick Ware Racing ride and he’ll have tease potential. LaJoie’s had some of the best performances of his career here and he’ll be auditioning for a ride and be going all out. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs well but finishing well might be a whole different matter.
Atlanta Track History – Corey LaJoie has been solid at Atlanta. LaJoie has a pair of top 5’s (should have 3) and overall in 4 of the 7 races he’s finished in the top 15. This spring, LaJoie finished 38th after being caught up in a wreck when Elliott spun. I’ll note, LaJoie actually didn’t run bad and looked teens good. Last summer, LaJoie was OK and finished 15th. In spring 2024, LaJoie finished 13th. That said, you could definitely argue he was better than his result. On lap 216, LaJoie was in 9th but then on lap 219 while running right around that position he was caught up in an accident. In summer 2023, LaJoie was a top ten contender but on lap 123 while running just short of the top ten, LaJoie spun and got quite a bit of damage which led to him finishing a misleading 31st. In spring 2023, LaJoie finished 4th. In summer 2022, LaJoie led 19 laps, was contending for the win late but then on the final lap while making a move on Chase Elliott for the win, LaJoie got into the wall from a block from the #9 which led to his asterisk mark 21st. In spring 2022, LaJoie finished 5th.

Austin Dillon
Atlanta Fantasy Outlook – I would look for Austin Dillon to likely finish around 20th at Atlanta. Over the last five Atlanta races, Dillon’s finished between 16th to 22nd with his average finish being 19.8. Things just haven’t gone smoothly for him and overall in the Next Gen his average finish ranks 31st (24.1).
Atlanta Track History – Atlanta hasn’t been a good track for Austin Dillon. In the Next Gen, Dillon’s yet to crack the top 15 and over the last five his average finish is a not so great 19.8. In the two prior to the last five, Dillon had back-to-back 35th’s. This spring, Dillon had his best Atlanta superspeedway race and finished 16th. That said, there was nothing special about his afternoon with Dillon having a 24.5 average running position and ranking 26th in terms of Driver Rating. If anything, Dillon benefitted from the attrition. Last summer, Dillon was a back third of the field driver but snuck in a 20th thanks to the last lap “Big One.” Prior to the last lap carnage, Dillon was running in 25th. Last spring, Dillon finished a clunker 22nd. That said, I don’t know how much I would read into it. On lap #2, Dillon was caught up in the “Big One”, and he was basically mired in the back from that point on, only moving forward thru others attrition. In 2023, Dillon was a low 20’s performer in both races, coming home with results of 20th and 21st.

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