Chicago Street Grant Park 165 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Justin Haley
Chicago Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley has been solid at Chicago in the results column and his average finish is 9th between the combined races. Can he keep the good times going? Considering he’s not running particularly well anywhere right now, I can’t say I feel good about him and a mid-pack afternoon is likely in the cards. This year at road courses, Haley has an 18.5 average finish and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks 23rd.
Chicago Track History – Justin Haley finished runner-up in Chicago #1 and over the combined races his 9.0 average finish ranks as the 4th best. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Haley ranks 10th. Last year, Haley finished 16th, had a 19.6 average running position and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Overall, it was  a great showing in his Rick Ware Racing ride. In 2023, Haley finished runner-up hanging tough near the front over the final third of the race after using pit strategy. In the race, Haley started in the rear of the field, led 23 laps, ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run, ranked 9th for Total Speed Rankings and also ranked 9th for Green Flag Speed. If Haley didn’t do his pit strategy play, he may have very well finished in the twenties, or perhaps the teens. That said, once Haley had track position which got him the lead with about a third of the race to go, SVG was the only driver who passed him.

Brad Keselowski
Chicago Fantasy Outlook – At road courses these days, I don’t expect anything good out of Keselowski. He doesn’t run well at them and I don’t think they are an area of emphasis. This year at road courses, Keselowski has a 20th place average finish and ranks 22nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. On Sunday, I think a mid-pack finish is really a best case scenario for him.
Chicago Track History – Brad Keselowski is 2 for 2 at finishing mid-pack at Chicago and between the combined races, Keselowski has a 21st place average finish, a 22.8 average running position and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 18th. Last year, it looked like Brad Keselowski would notch a good result but he faded a lot late. I think the weather helped coverup his road course racing deficiency because he didn’t look bad. On lap 40, Keselowski was in 12th but then shortly after that some field flipping happened and he found himself in 3rd. With 5 laps to go until the scheduled distance he was still running in 3rd but then late race wildness plummeted him in the running order, leading to his 18th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Keselowski ranked 8th with his speed over the segments being 23rd, 12th, 10th and 10th. In 2023, Keselowski finished 24th, had a 28.5 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

Zane Smith
Chicago Fantasy Outlook – At Chicago, I can’t say I’m expecting much out of Zane Smith, other than a likely mid-pack finish. Smith was mid-pack last year at Chicago (17th) and since 2024 at road courses minus Mexico where he had drive train problems, Smith’s average finish is 17.5. Also over the combined races on this track type since last year, Smith ranks 32nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, being 6 for 7 at ranking 24th or worse in terms of speed.
Chicago Track History – Last year at Chicago in his only “Windy City” start, Zane Smith finished 17th, had a 20th place average running position and led 3 laps via pit strategy. It was just ultimately a mid-pack afternoon for him.

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