Daytona Coke Zero Sugar 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Noah Gragson
Daytona Fantasy Outlook – Noah Gragson rarely dodges trouble these days and at Daytona, he’ll likely have his work cut out for him. That said, the draft/attrition are great equalizers, so he’ll have boosted upside compared to most race weekends. At Talladega, the other big superspeedway on the schedule, Gragson had his best 2025 result and finished 4th. At Daytona in the Next Gen, Gragson has a pair of top 10’s but over his other four starts he’s finished 24th or worse.
Daytona Track History – Noah Gragson has had some success at Daytona and in 2 of his 6 starts, he’s finished in the top ten. In this year’s Daytona 500, Gragson had a tough race and finished 28th. That said, Gragson might’ve been able to sneak in a good result since at the time of his demise on lap 185, he was running around 6th when he was involved in a “Big One”. That said, Gragson didn’t run well for much of it and his average running position ranked 29th (23.1). Last summer, Gragson had a fairly short race en route to finishing 37th. In the race, Gragson was in 11th on lap 58 but then on lap 60 which was the last lap of Stage #1, he got a big push and then chaos ensued, causing a “Big One” and marking the end of his race (37th). In the 2024 Daytona 500, Gragson finished 9th and led 5 laps. That said, his average running position was 19.6 and he was in 23rd on lap 190 before the “Big One.” In the 2023 “500”, Gragson finished 24th. That said, Gragson was actually on pace to finish well before wrecking in overtime. On lap 198 under caution, Gragson was running in 11th before getting collected in the “Overtime #1 Big One.” In summer 2022, Gragson dodged the “Big One’s” and finished 5th. In the 2022 Daytona 500, Gragson looked solid and was running in 9th on lap 189, but then on lap 190 he was swept up in a late crash, leading to his 31st.

Josh Berry
Daytona Fantasy Outlook – Josh Berry will be looking to make a splash in the regular season finale. Berry nearly won this race last summer, but NASCAR is ultimately about the results column and Berry’s among the worst in that respect here. At Daytona in the Next Gen, Berry has a best finish of 22nd and a 27.5 average finish. Overall at big superspeedways since 2024, Berry has a 28.0 average finish, and he’s only cracked the top 20 once (16th at Talladega in spring 2024).
Daytona Track History – Daytona hasn’t been kind to Josh Berry and he’s yet to crack the top 20. In this year’s Daytona 500, Berry didn’t have an incident free race and finished 27th. In the race, Berry finished back around the high 20’s in Stage #1 and then at the beginning of Stage #2, he crashed when Logano had trouble getting up to speed. Last summer, Berry was a standout performer. In the race, Berry won Stage #1, led 9 laps, had the 2nd best Driver Rating, was tied for having the 2nd best average running position (7.5) but then with 2 laps to go while battling for the lead, Berry crashed which led to his 26th. Last February, Berry finished 25th. I’ll note, Berry’s race wasn’t incident free and on lap 112 during green flag pit stops he spun on pit road, and that put him behind for the rest of the race, dropping him off the lead lap and into the 30’s. Prior to spinning out, Berry ran around the teens. In summer 2023 in the # 42, Berry finished 22nd.

Ryan Preece
Daytona Fantasy Outlook – Daytona has been brutal to Ryan Preece. Preece is capable of running near the front, but I don’t know if he’s capable of finishing well. At Daytona, Preece has a 63.6% DNF rate over his 11 starts which weighs down his average finish to 25.2 but his non-DNF average finish is 10.3.
Daytona Track History – Ryan Preece has historically been a “Hero or zero” at Daytona. In the Next Gen, Preece has 100% been a zero with his average finish being 32.2 over the last five. In this year’s Daytona 500, Preece flipped late and finished 32nd. In the race, Preece led 6 laps, spent some time running near the front, was in 12th on lap 195 but then later that lap he was caught up in a “Big One”, leading to his poor result. Last summer, Preece had a short evening and finished 39th. In the race, Preece started 4th, finished way back in the 30’s in Stage #1 trying to avoid trouble, was in the high 20’s on lap 58 but then on lap 60 he was collected in the “Big One.” Last February, Preece showed potential, but finished 23rd. In the race, Preece finished just outside the top ten in Stage #1, but then in Stage #2 on lap 112 when he was running in 2nd prior to pitting during the green flag pit cycle, Preece was caught speeding on pit road which put him behind for the rest of the race. Then late in the race, Preece was caught up in the late “Big One”, but he was able to continue and due to attrition, he finished 23rd. In summer 2023, Preece flipped late and finished 31st. For quite a bit of the last Stage prior to the final green flag pit cycle, Preece ran in 3rd. On lap 156 just prior to his demise, Preece was in 14th. In the 2023 Daytona 500, Preece looked pretty good, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Preece finished 2nd in Stage #1, led 4 laps, was running in 5th on lap 170 but then shortly after that on lap 180 following a round of green flag pit stops, he was caught up in a multi-car crash (36th). In 2021, Preece swept the top 6, with finishes of 4th and 6th.

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