Gateway / WWT Raceway Enjoy Illinois 300 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / Low Tier

Erik Jones
Gateway Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones has the distinction of finishing worse in each new Gateway Race, so let’s hope that trend ends. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Erik Jones has basically been mid-pack and over the combined races he has a 20.0 average finish, an 18.9 average running position and ranks 24th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would view Jones as having high-teens upside.
Gateway Track History – At Gateway in the Next Gen, Erik Jones has a 17.0 average finish and ranks 23rd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. As you read above though, he’s actually gotten worse in each new start. Last year, Jones was a mid 20’s performer. In the race, Jones finished 26th, had a 24.1 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Jones started 31st, had a 22.8 average running position and then finished 18th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 23rd. In 2022, Jones had a 9.9 average running position and then finished 7th overall. In terms of speed stats, Jones had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 10th for Speed Late In A Run.

Justin Haley
Gateway Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley has been unusually good at Gateway, but I have a hard time thinking that trend will continue but it might. At Gateway, Haley has a 13.0 average finish and he’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top 16. By his current standards, that’s outstanding. That said, Haley’s Next Gen Speed Ranking is a not so great 27th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Haley has a 31.3 average finish and ranks 22nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as mid-pack at best.
Gateway Track History – Justin Haley has snuck in respectable results at Gateway with his average finish being 13th over the three. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Haley ranks down the depth chart in 27th. Last year, Haley started 21st, had a 19.5 average running position, ranked 19th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 9th. I would largely credit his good finish to him having plenty of fuel and being able to race hard late. In 2023, Haley finished 16th and then in 2022 he finished 14th.

Todd Gilliland
Gateway Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland has back-to-back mid-teen finishes at Gateway (15.5 average finish) but with the current competitive state of the #34, that’s likely a best-case scenario and a realistic expectation should likely be a 20’s finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Gilliland has a 25.3 average finish and ranks 32nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Phoenix has perhaps the most correlation, and he had his best shorter-flat track result there and finished 17th.
Gateway Track History – Todd Gilliland has been solid at Gateway over the last two races and has a pair of mid-teen finishes to show for it. Overall in the Next Gen, Gilliland has a 17.7 average finish but ranks 29th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last summer, Gilliland started 35th, earned the 23rd best Driver Rating, had a 21.5 average running position and then finished 16th. In terms of speed stats, Gilliland ranked 19th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Gilliland was respectable. In the race, Gilliland started 28th, had a 23.5 average running position and then finished 15th overall. To close out the race, Gilliland was a mid to high-teens performer. In 2022, Gilliland had an uneventful afternoon and finished 22nd (22.9 average running position).

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