Bristol Bass Pro Shops Night Race Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones has had some great performances at Bristol and flirted with victory lane in the past but unless he shows up with “Surprise Speed” that we haven’t seen from him in years, it’s best to just have mid-pack expectations. At Bristol in the Next Gen, Jones hasn’t finished better than 20th, has a 24.2 average finish and ranks 25th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. On Saturday night, I would view Jones as having “Roll of the dice upside” but be braced for a 20’s finish.
Bristol Track History – As you read above, Jones has not run well at Bristol in the Next Gen with his average finish being 24.2 and his Next Gen Speed Ranking being 25th. This spring, Jones was simply a mid to high 20’s performer. In the race, Jones started 28th, had a 28.6 average running position, had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 26th overall. Last summer, Jones had his worst Bristol Next Gen race and came home 30th. Jones didn’t have any real notable problems; he was just that bad. In the race, Jones had a 29.6 average running position, ranked 30th for Total Speed Rankings and ranked 31st for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Jones finished 20th, had the 17th best Speed Ranking and had a 17.9 average running position. In 2023, Jones was sporty but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Jones started 31st, finished about 14th in Stage #2, was in 10th on lap 315 but then shortly after that he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel which doomed him to his misleading 24th. In 2022, Jones didn’t run well and finished 21st after having multiple problems. Over the three Bristol races prior to that, Jones had a 5.3 average finish with results of 8th (2021), 3rd (2020 #2) and 5th (2020 #1).

John H Nemechek
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Picking John H Nemechek at Bristol will likely go as well as you’re thinking, and that’s a 20’s finish if he doesn’t crash. Nemechek might have some attrition upside, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol over his five starts, John Nemechek has an 18.6 average finish. In the Next Gen over his three, Nemechek has a 20.0 average finish and ranks 21st in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. This spring, Nemechek started in the back, finished about 30th in Stage #1, finished around 31st in Stage #2, had a 27.2 average running position and then finished 21st overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranked 22nd. Last summer, Nemechek slammed into the wall on lap 5, and his competitive afternoon was over after that, leading to his 33rd. Last spring when tire wear was extreme, Nemechek looked great. In the race, Nemechek started 26th, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 9.2 average running position and then finished 6th. Back in 2020 in the #38, Nemechek had finishes of 13th and 20th.

Justin Haley
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley was shockingly competitive this spring en route to a 13th so if you’re looking to roll the dice on him, this might be the weekend. Overall in the Next Gen at Bristol, Haley has a 19.8 average finish and ranks 17th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I think it’s best to just view him as a mid-pack driver who’ll have roll of the dice upside.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol in the Next Gen minus 2023, Justin Haley has a 16.0 average finish. This spring I don’t know how he did it, but Justin Haley looked great. In the race, Haley started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 7.5 average running position and then finished 13th overall. Additionally, Haley earned the 8th best Driver Rating and ranked 8th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last summer, Haley finished 22nd, had a 26.1 average running position and then ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. It was a pretty un-notable evening. Last spring, Haley was a legit top ten contender but finished a misleading 17th. In the race, Haley started 32nd, had a 14.7 average running position, was in 9th with 20 to go but then over the closing laps, the #51 dropped way off in terms of pace which led to him finishing 17th. In 2023, Haley had a tough race and finished 35th. In the race, Haley finished around 25th in Stage #2, but then early in the last Stage he crashed. In 2022, Haley finished 12th.

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