New Hampshire Mobil 1 301 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones currently has back-to-back low double-digit results at New Hampshire but I think that trend will end. This year at shorter-flat tracks, the #43 hasn’t run well. Jones just recently finished 21st at Gateway and over the combined races, Jones has a 20.3 average finish and ranks 24th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I think having high teens expectations is realistic.
New Hampshire History – In the Next Gen at New Hampshire, Erik Jones has a 14.3 average finish but ranks 25th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Last year, Jones finished 13th but I would say that is wet weather assisted. In the race, Jones started 32nd, had a 21.9 average running position and then finished around 24th at the end of Stage #2. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 21st. In 2023, Jones had his best New Hampshire result in years. In the race, Jones started 30th, had the 30th best Total Speed Ranking, had a 23.8 average running position and then finished 11th. I’ll note, Jones got into the wall and spun on lap 162 while running in 24th and then late in the race on lap 281 while running around the mid-teens he was involved in another incident. With that level of adversity, him finishing that good is pretty shocking. In the two New Hampshire races prior to that, Jones had back-to-back 19th’s.

AJ Allmendinger 
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – This year at shorter-flat tracks, AJ Allmendinger is 4 for 4 at finishing between 18th to 23rd and has a 21.0 average finish. At New Hampshire, I would expect more of the same. In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings in 2025, Allmendinger ranks 25th.
New Hampshire History – At New Hampshire in the Next Gen, Allmendinger is 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens, has a 17.5 average finish and ranks 15th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, Allmendinger didn’t race here. In the two races prior to that, Allmendinger finished 19th in 2023 and then 16th in 2022.

Daniel Suarez
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – At New Hampshire, I don’t have high expectations for Daniel Suarez and the #99 team. Suarez hasn’t had a lot of success at shorter-flat tracks this year and for the season at these venues he ranks 19th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and his average finish is 22.5. Heading into the weekend, I think it’s wise to just have mid-pack expectations.
New Hampshire History – At New Hampshire, Daniel Suarez has 3 top tens but in his other six starts he’s finished between 16th to 26th. In the Next Gen over the combined races, Suarez has a 15.3 average finish and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 20th. Last year, Suarez had a 31.3 average running position, ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 21st overall. It was just an ugly afternoon. In 2023, Suarez was a mid-pack performer. In the race, Suarez finished 16th, had a 14.1 average running position and ranked 19th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.  In 2022, Suarez had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 9th overall. To close out the race, he was at his best and his speed over the segments were 16th, 16th, 15th and then 9th. In his three starts prior to that, Suarez had results of 20th, 26th and 19th.

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