Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Kansas who’ll be a favorite. At this mid-west 1.5-mile track, Larson smoked the field this spring en route to victory lane, he’s won 2 of the last 3 races and in the Next Gen he ranks #1 for average finish (6.3), Driver Rating, Laps Led Per Race (71.0) and has a 4.5 Next Gen Speed Ranking minus last fall. This year at high-speed intermediates (High-speed 1.5’s + Michigan), Larson won at Kansas, he’s ranked #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings in 3 of the 5 races and for the season minus Charlotte his average finish is 4.8.
Kansas History – Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level at Kansas and in the Next Gen minus last fall, Larson has a 3.0 average finish, the best Driver Rating by a healthy margin and his average Speed Ranking is 4.5. This spring, Larson took the competition to the woodshed. In the race, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned a near perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position, led 221 laps and of course finished 1st. Despite that impressive stats line, he did look quite beatable at times. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, Larson finished 26th but you can quickly disregard that result. On lap 19 while running in 10th, Larson had a tire go down and got into the wall hard, ending his competitive afternoon. Last spring, Larson came up clutch, racing his way to victory lane with a last lap pass. In the race, Larson had a 2.8 average running position, led 63 laps and earned the best driver rating. Before the late caution came out, Larson looked poised to finish around 3rd. In fall 2023, Larson finished 4th but I would make a case he was better than his finish. Around the midpoint while he was in 2nd and on old tires, Larson had a bad restart which dropped him back to about 20th. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, led the most laps (99) and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Larson had the race all but won until Hamlin dumped him on the last lap while leading. In the race, Larson led 85 laps, ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking.

Denny Hamlin
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Kansas who’s always tough to beat. Hamlin’s a 4-time winner and in the Next Gen, Hamlin ranks #1 for Next Gen Speed Rankings, has the 2nd best Driver Rating and his average finish minus this spring is 3.7. This year at high-speed intermediates, Hamlin’s had quite a bit of trouble, but he won the most recent race at Michigan and his average Speed Ranking over the last three races is 2.6. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Kansas History – Denny Hamlin has been one of the premiere performers at Kansas and in the Next Gen, Hamlin has the best Speed Ranking and over the combined races minus this spring his average finish is 3.7. This spring, Hamlin may have very well had something for Larson, but he had major clutch issues which were a hinderance throughout and eventually marked his demise. In the race, Hamlin started 14th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2 but then finished an asterisk mark 36th. In the last Stage during the Keselowski caution around lap 195 while running in 4th, Hamlin’s clutch completely went out and it marked the end of his race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 4th with his speed over the segments being 13th, 1st and then 3rd. Last fall, Hamlin had a strong showing. In the race, Hamlin started 8th, finished 4th in Stage #1, had a slow pit stop early in Stage #2 that dropped him from 6th back to the mid-teens, finished just outside the top ten in Stage #2 and then finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Hamlin ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Hamlin was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 5th. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 71 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and had a 6.3 average running position. If a late caution didn’t come out, Hamlin was poised to win. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 4th.

William Byron
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Look for the #24 to be fast and for William Byron to be a factor at Kansas. Byron’s had some great runs here and he ranks as one of the premiere performers at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks. Byron was one of the best last fall en route to a 2nd, he looked great this spring until he had problems while running in 2nd, so hopefully he won’t be a letdown as long as he avoids trouble. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Byron has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating and has a 6.3 average finish minus Kansas this spring. At Charlotte, the most recent high-speed 1.5-mile track visited, Byron led 283 laps and then finished 2nd.
Kansas History – William Byron has been strong at Kansas and over the last 12 races, he’s 8 for 12 at finishing in the top ten. That said, 3 of those finishes south of the top ten have come over the last four races due to problems. Overall at Kansas in the Next Gen, Byron ranks 10th for Speed Rankings and has the 8th best average finish (12.7). This spring, Byron likely had one of the best cars but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Byron started 7th, had driven up to 2nd on lap 65 but then on lap 66, Byron had a flat tire and had a partial spin coming to pit road. That dropped him off the lead lap back into the 30’s and the #24 was just never the same after that. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 16th but take note his speed over the segments were 3rd, 12th, 36th and then 21st. Last fall, Byron finished 2nd, had a race best 4.7 average running position, earned the best Driver Rating and led 24 laps. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking and the best Green Flag Speed. Last spring, Byron was a dud and finished 23rd. That said, Byron had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking, a 16.3 average running position and I’m speculating he also got into a wall along the way. In fall 2023, Byron finished 15th but I wouldn’t read too much into that result. On lap 63 while running in 4th, Byron spun which brought out a caution and from that point on, he just wasn’t good. Over the two races prior to that, Byron had results of 3rd and 6th.

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