Martinsville Xfinity 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon has roll of the dice upside at Martinsville. Dillon had a great race last fall (7th) and in the Next Gen, he’s finished in the top 12 42.8% of the time. That said in the other 57.2%, he’s finished 18th or worse, so there’s a pretty good chance he’ll burn you if you have high expectations.
Martinsville History – At Martinsville in the Next Gen, Austin Dillon ranks 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and his results are (not in order) 3rd, 7th, 12th, 18th, 23rd, 33rd and 34th, so as you can see, he has results all across the board. This spring, Dillon was a high-teens driver. In the race, Dillon finished 18th, had a 17.6 average running position and ranked 12th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll also note late in Stage #1, Dillon was reported to have lost first gear. Last fall, Dillon ran well. In the race, Dillon finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 9.0 average running position, earned the 7th best Driver Rating and then finished 7th overall. In terms of speed stats, Dillon had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 13th for Speed Late In A Run. Last spring, Dillon finished three laps down in 34th, which is legit! In the race, Dillon had a 33.1 average running position and ranked 35th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2023, Dillon wasn’t good either and finished 23rd. In spring 2023, Dillon finished 12th. In 2022, Dillon finished 33rd in the fall (brake rotor failure while running in 19th) and then 3rd in the spring.

AJ Allmendinger 
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – AJ Allmendinger was once a solid performer at Martinsville, but I think those days are a thing of the past. In the Next Gen at “The Paper Clip”, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing between 23rd to 28th and has a 25.0 average finish. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Allmendinger ranks 23rd. I’ll note if you go way back to fall 2010 (which is a long way back, I know), Allmendinger’s finished in the top 14 in 12 of his 20 races, so he is capable of being solid.
Martinsville History – In the Next Gen at Martinsville, things haven’t been pretty for AJ Allmendinger as you read above and over his five starts, Allmendinger has a 25.0 average finish, and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 23rd. This spring, Allmendinger was just kind of a dud. In the race, Allmendinger finished 23rd, had a 22.3 average running position and ranked 23rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last year, Allmendinger didn’t compete in either race. Back in 2023, Allmendinger had a pair of high 20’s finishes with results of 27th and 28th. In 2022, Allmendinger had finishes of 23rd and 24th.

Daniel Suarez
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I expect about a mid-pack afternoon out of Suarez. Suarez was mid-pack this spring en route to a 21st, his Next Gen average finish is a mid-pack 22.6 and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 23rd. Suarez has also consistently been mid-pack or worse here and in 11 of his last 12 races he’s finished 17th or worse.
Martinsville History – As you just read, Martinsville typically doesn’t play out well for Daniel Suarez and in the Next Gen he’s finished 17th or worse in 6 of the 7 races. Over the last three, Suarez has had results of 21st, 22nd and 23rd, so that should give you a good idea as to what you should expect. This spring, Suarez finished 21st, had a 16.9 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I would chalk up his result to him just not being at his best late with his speed over the segments being 19th, 12th, 12th and then 23rd. Last fall, Suarez finished 23rd and had a 22.6 average running position. Last spring, Suarez started 21st, had a 19.2 average running position, ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 22nd. I’ll note, Suarez did lead 13 laps via pit strategy, but those certainly weren’t due to “Performance.” In fall 2023, Suarez showed teens potential but crashed early in the last Stage. On lap 271 during the restart for the final Stage he was in 16th but then on lap 274 he crashed which marked the end of his race, leading to his 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Suarez ranked 17th. Over the two races prior to that, Suarez had finishes of 17th and 12th.

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