Daytona 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ryan Preece
Daytona 500 Outlook – Ryan Preece will be a driver to watch at Daytona, but it has been quite brutal to him. Preece is likely well down the depth chart via his 29.2 Next Gen average finish, but he ran pretty well in both races last year and also had a runner-up at Talladega last spring before getting post-race DQ’ed. At Daytona, Preece has a 58.3% DNF rate over his 12 starts which weighs down his average finish to 24.3 but his non-DNF average finish is 11.0.
Daytona History – Ryan Preece has historically been a “Hero or zero” at Daytona but recently, times have been far more tough and in 5 of the last 6 races, he’s finished 23rd or worse, with four of those bad results being in the 30’s. Last summer, Preece was a contender to win but got shuffled out of line late and finished 14th. In the race, Preece finished 8th in the two opening Stages, led 3 laps, had the 2nd best average running position (9.3) and earned the 2nd best Driver Rating. In last year’s Daytona 500, Preece flipped late and finished 32nd. In the race, Preece led 6 laps, spent some time running near the front, was in 12th on lap 195 but then later that lap he was caught up in a “Big One”, leading to his poor result. In summer 2024, Preece had a short evening and finished 39th. In the race, Preece started 4th, finished way back in the 30’s in Stage #1 trying to avoid trouble, was in the high 20’s on lap 58 but then on lap 60 he was collected in the “Big One.” In February 2024, Preece showed potential, but finished 23rd. In the race, Preece finished just outside the top ten in Stage #1, but then in Stage #2 on lap 112 when he was running in 2nd prior to pitting during the green flag pit cycle, Preece was caught speeding on pit road. Then late in the race, Preece was caught up in the late “Big One”, but he was able to continue and due to attrition, he finished 23rd. In summer 2023, Preece flipped late and finished 31st. For quite a bit of the last Stage prior to the final green flag pit cycle, Preece ran in 3rd. On lap 156 just prior to his demise, Preece was in 14th. In the three races prior to that, Preece had finishes of 36th, 4th and 6th.

Carson Hocevar
Daytona 500 Outlook – Carson Hocevar has an ugly Daytona track record but he’s worth a roll of the dice. At Talladega the other big superspeedway on the schedule, Hocevar had a pair of 6th place finishes last year, so he’s certainly capable on this track type.
Daytona History – At Daytona, Carson Hocevar has a 28.8 average finish and he’s 3 for 4 at finishing 30th or worse. Last summer, Hocevar had a rough evening which included him being involved in the lap 27 “Big One” and then later his engine blowing up on lap 82, leading to his 30th. In last year’s Daytona 500, Hocevar had some sort of problem under his hood which impacted him competitively all race long and he finished 34th. In summer 2024, Hocevar had a very cautious approach and hung around near the back for much of the race which had him having a 30.4 average running position but when the checkered flag waved, he finished 11th. In the 2024 Daytona 500, nobody had a shorter race and he finished 40th after crashing on lap 5 while running around 10th.

Todd Gilliland
Daytona 500 Outlook – Todd Gilliland is a solid superspeedway racer whose deep on the depth chart but deservedly. Daytona has been brutal, and Gilliland’s 7 for 8 at finishing 23rd or worse. At Talladega the other big superspeedway on the schedule, Gilliland finished runner-up last fall and he’s 5 for 8 at finishing in the top 12, so he’s certainly capable of finishing well at big superspeedways. Overall in the Next Gen at Daytona, Gilliland has a 26.4 average finish, and his Next Gen Driver Rating ranks 24th.
Daytona History – Close your eyes when you look at Todd Gilliland’s Daytona resume. His 26.4 average finish ranks among the worst; he’s 7 for 8 at finishing 23rd or worse and he’s 5 for 8 at DNF’ing. Last summer, Gilliland had his best Daytona result and finished 11th, despite having an early spin on lap 18. Additionally, Gilliland earned the 22nd best Driver Rating and ranked 23rd in terms of average running position (18.4). With 5 to go, Gilliland was back in 22nd, so he passed a lot of cars in the closing laps. In last year’s Daytona 500, Gilliland finished 27th. In the race, Gilliland had the 15th best average running position, was running in 14th on lap 185 but then he was damaged in the Logano/Stenhouse “Big One”, leading to his poor result. In 2024, Gilliland was actually pretty good in both races, but the results column doesn’t reflect it with him having a 29th place finish between the combined races. In summer 2024, Gilliland finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 5 laps, was in 8th on lap 158 but then he was damaged in the late Cindric/Berry wreck which led to him finishing two laps down in 23rd. In the 2024 Daytona 500, Gilliland was a top ten contender but crashed late and finished 35th. In the race, Gilliland led 16 laps, was in 9th on lap 190 but then on lap 191 he was caught up in the “Big One.”

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