COTA DuraMAX Grand Prix Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Brad Keselowski
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, it’s likely wise to avoid Brad Keselowski at all costs. He’s not a good road course racer and he has a backup driver already in place (Joey Hand) since he’s unsure if he’s physically capable of competing in this race. That said, it might just be a plus to have someone else finish the race, as long as Keselowski starts it. Last year at road courses, Keselowski ranked 16th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, had the 21st best Driver Rating and had a 25.8 average finish.
COTA Track History – In the Next Gen at COTA, Brad Keselowski has a pair of teen finishes, a pair of finishes in the 30’s, ranks 31st in terms of Next Gen Driver Ratings and ranks 32nd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, Keselowski finished 15th, earned the 16th best Driver Rating, had a 19.5 average running position and ranked 16th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Keselowski had at least three spins sprinkled throughout the race and then finished 33rd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 34th.  In 2023, the #6 was junk and Keselowski spun 4-times! He spun early and late. At no point did he look good and when the checkered flag waved, he finished 35th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Keselowski ranked 31st. In 2022, Keselowski finished 14th but take note of his 27.6 average running position and 31st best Total Speed Ranking. With 6 laps to go until the scheduled distance and the final caution, Keselowski was running in 23rd.

John H Nemechek
COTA Fantasy Outlook – I can’t say I could pick John H Nemechek with confidence at COTA. His average finish over his two starts is 21.5 and in both races, he ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. When you pair that with his 2025 21.5 track type average finish and 25th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking, there’s clearly better options and it’s wise to just have mid-pack expectations.
COTA Track History – John H Nemechek has been consistent at COTA and so far in the Next Gen, he’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the low 20’s with a 21.5 average finish. Last year, Nemechek finished 22nd, had a 26.6 average running position and then ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, he did get a commitment cone violation late in Stage #2 while making his near end of the Stage pit stop, but he was back in the high 20’s at that time so I can’t exactly say it hurt him too much. In 2024, Nemechek started 22nd and finished 22nd. Additionally, Nemechek had a 26th place average running position, ranked 19th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 30th best Total Speed Ranking.

Noah Gragson
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Noah Gragson worked magic somehow at COTA last year and finished 8th which I view as legitimate, but lighting doesn’t strike twice, and I would just have mid-pack expectations. He never backed that performance up and in 2025 at road courses minus COTA his average finish was 29.2. In 2025 over the combined road course races, Gragson ranked 35th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
COTA Track History – At COTA over his three starts, Noah Gragson has a 20.7 average finish, and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 30th. Last year, I don’t know how he did it, but Gragson finished 8th, and I don’t view that as flukey. To begin the last Stage, Gragson was in 20th and then he legit steadily climbed up thru the field to his 8th from there. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gragson ranked 28th but in the 4th segment, he ranked as having the 8th fastest car on the track. In 2024, Gragson struggled, and he even spun out with 4-laps to go while running in the 30’s and went on to finish 34th. Additionally, Gragson ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 32nd place average running position. In 2023 in his first COTA race, Gragson finished 20th.

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