Bristol Food City 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

John H Nemechek
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – John H Nemechek is a driver down the depth chart who might be worth a look at Bristol. In the Next Gen, Nemechek has a 50% top 14 finish rate and his average finish minus 2024 #2 is 13.6. Do I think he can finish that good? Absolutely not and realistically, I think having mid-pack expectations and hoping for the best is the right play. I’ll also quickly note, both of Nemechek’s good Next Gen finishes have come in the high-tire wear races, so he’ll be rooting for that track condition.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol over his six starts, John H Nemechek has a 17.8 average finish. Last summer when tire wear was high, Nemechek ran well. In the race he finished 14th, had a 13.6 average running position, earned the 14th best Driver Rating and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring in a low wear race, Nemechek started in the back, finished about 30th in Stage #1, finished around 31st in Stage #2, had a 27.2 average running position and then finished 21st overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranked 22nd. In summer 2024, Nemechek slammed into the wall on lap 5, and his competitive afternoon was over after that, leading to his 33rd. In spring 2024 when tire wear was extreme, Nemechek looked great. In the race, Nemechek started 26th, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 9.2 average running position and then finished 6th. Back in 2020 in the #38, Nemechek had finishes of 13th and 20th.

Justin Allgaier
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – At Bristol, I fully expect Justin Allgaier to have a mid-pack afternoon. So far in the #48 over his three races this season, Allgaier’s had results of 25th, 24th and 22nd but there is silver lining, he’s finished better in each new race, so there’s hope for continued improvement.
Bristol Track History – In the Xfinity series at Bristol, Justin Allgaier is a 2-time winner with an 11.2 average finish. Last year, Allgaier swept the top ten with results of 3rd and 6th. Going further back, in 6 of his last 7 races, he’s finished in the top ten.

AJ Allmendinger
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – AJ Allmendinger is a driver down the depth chart who might be worth a roll of the dice. Allmendinger finished 9th last spring and he ran well for a portion last summer before his evening went south. Going further back at Bristol, he’s finished 17th or worse in 8 of the last 10 races, so it’s best to keep expectations around mid-pack but realize he might have upside.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol in the Next Gen, AJ Allmendinger has two top tens but over the other four races he’s finished 23rd or worse. Last summer, Allmendinger won the pole, led 24 laps, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished off the lead lap in the mid 20’s in Stage #2, was running in 22nd on lap 380 but then on lap 383 when Hamlin lost a wheel, Allmendinger slammed into the wall hard, dooming himself to a 36th place finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Allmendinger ranked 23rd with his speed over the segments being 4th, 26th, 28th and then 36th. Last spring, Allmendinger had a great race. In the race, Allmendinger started 8th, had a 10.9 average running position, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 9th overall. In 2024, Allmendinger had a pair of 23rd place finishes. In the two races prior to that, Allmendinger had results of 30th and 9th.

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