Bristol Food City 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

John H Nemechek
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – John H Nemechek is a driver down the depth chart who might be worth a look at Bristol. In the Next Gen, Nemechek has a 50% top 14 finish rate and his average finish minus 2024 #2 is 13.6. Do I think he can finish that good? Absolutely not and realistically, I think having mid-pack expectations and hoping for the best is the right play. I’ll also quickly note, both of Nemechek’s good Next Gen finishes have come in the high-tire wear races, so he’ll be rooting for that track condition.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol over his six starts, John H Nemechek has a 17.8 average finish. Last summer when tire wear was high, Nemechek ran well. In the race he finished 14th, had a 13.6 average running position, earned the 14th best Driver Rating and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring in a low wear race, Nemechek started in the back, finished about 30th in Stage #1, finished around 31st in Stage #2, had a 27.2 average running position and then finished 21st overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranked 22nd. In summer 2024, Nemechek slammed into the wall on lap 5, and his competitive afternoon was over after that, leading to his 33rd. In spring 2024 when tire wear was extreme, Nemechek looked great. In the race, Nemechek started 26th, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 9.2 average running position and then finished 6th. Back in 2020 in the #38, Nemechek had finishes of 13th and 20th.

AJ Allmendinger
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – AJ Allmendinger is a driver down the depth chart who might be worth a roll of the dice. Allmendinger finished 9th last spring and he ran well for a portion last summer before his evening went south. Going further back at Bristol, he’s finished 17th or worse in 8 of the last 10 races, so it’s best to keep expectations around mid-pack but realize he might have upside.
Bristol Track History – At Bristol in the Next Gen, AJ Allmendinger has two top tens but over the other four races he’s finished 23rd or worse. Last summer, Allmendinger won the pole, led 24 laps, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished off the lead lap in the mid 20’s in Stage #2, was running in 22nd on lap 380 but then on lap 383 when Hamlin lost a wheel, Allmendinger slammed into the wall hard, dooming himself to a 36th place finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Allmendinger ranked 23rd with his speed over the segments being 4th, 26th, 28th and then 36th. Last spring, Allmendinger had a great race. In the race, Allmendinger started 8th, had a 10.9 average running position, had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 9th overall. In 2024, Allmendinger had a pair of 23rd place finishes. In the two races prior to that, Allmendinger had results of 30th and 9th.

Erik Jones
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones has had some great performances at Bristol and flirted with victory lane in the past but unless he shows up with “Surprise Speed” that we haven’t seen from him in years, it’s best to just have mid-pack expectations. In the Next Gen at Bristol, Jones is 6 for 6 at finishing between 20th to 30th, has a 23.5 average finish and ranks 25th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would just expect a 20’s finish from the #43.
Bristol Track History – As you read above, Jones has not run well at Bristol in the Next Gen. Last summer, Jones finished 20th, had a 16.1 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. It was a quiet mid-pack evening. Last spring, Jones was simply a mid to high 20’s performer. In the race, Jones started 28th, had a 28.6 average running position, had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 26th overall. In summer 2024, Jones had his worst Bristol Next Gen race and came home 30th. Jones didn’t have any real notable problems; he was just that bad. In spring 2024’s high-wear race, Jones finished 20th, had the 17th best Speed Ranking and had a 17.9 average running position. In 2023, Jones was sporty but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Jones started 31st, finished about 14th in Stage #2, was in 10th on lap 315 but then shortly after that he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel which doomed him to his misleading 24th. In 2022, Jones didn’t run well and finished 21st after having multiple problems.

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