Kansas Advent Health 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – In the Next Gen at Kansas, Austin Dillon is 50% at finishing between 10th to 14th but in the other 50% he’s finished 22nd or worse. Lately, Dillon’s frequently finished in the bad range and in 4 of the last 5 he’s finished 22nd or worse. Overall in the Next Gen, Dillon ranks 18th in terms of Speed Rankings and has a 19.5 average finish. That said, there is some hope and at Las Vegas this spring, Dillon finished 12th which is my primary hope in him that something respectable might happen.
Kansas Track History – At Kansas over the last 11 races minus fall 2023, Dillon has a 15.4 average finish. That said in 3 of the last 4, he’s finished between 22nd to 27th. Last year, Dillon went 2 for 2 at finishing in the 20’s. Last fall, Dillon finished 27th, had a 29.8 average running position and ranked 35th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Dillon was involved in a crash on lap 216 but just prior to that, he was running around 30th and at no point did he look competitive. Last spring, Dillon was a 20’s performer. In the race, Dillon finished 22nd, had a 21.2 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2024, Dillon finished 12th but take note of his 23.8 average running position and 25th best Total Speed Ranking. Dillon did close out strong over the final stretch, so I would say his finish is legit. In spring 2024, Dillon finished 25th, had the 25th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 22.5 average running position. In fall 2023, there’s probably a pretty good chance Dillon would’ve been solid, but his race wasn’t incident free. Around lap 63 while he was running in 11th, Dillon got into the wall hard and that doomed him to a 33rd. In spring 2023, Dillon finished 10th. In the five races prior to that, Dillon had results of 14th, 13th, 10th, 10th and 11th.

Shane van Gisbergen
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Shane van Gisbergen finished 10th last fall at Kansas, so he’s worth a roll of the dice. That said, outside of last fall’s Kansas race, he hasn’t done much at high-speed 1.5’s. Since 2025 at high-speed 1.5’s, SVG has the 30th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and to start the season on this track type, he had a troubled Las Vegas afternoon where he finished 36th. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a mid-pack driver with upside.
Kansas Track History – Last fall at Kansas, Shane van Gisbergen started in the back, served a pass thru penalty after taking the green, finished 35th in Stage #1, finished 19th in Stage #2 and then over much of the last Stage, he ran around the low double-digits to mid-teens and then finished 10th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, SVG ranked 20th but take note he got faster as the race progressed with his speed over the segments being 33rd, 22nd, 17th and then 13th. Last spring in his only other Kansas start, SVG finished 20th, had a 28.5 average running position and ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

Todd Gilliland
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland has been a sneaky good low-tier driver at Kansas and in 3 of the last 4 races, he’s finished between 12th to 14th. Do I think he can finish that good again? No, but yet he’s done 75% of the time since 2024. Since 2025 at high-speed 1.5’s over the combined races, Gilliland has a 19.6 average finish and ranks 31st in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. This spring at Las Vegas, Gilliland was uncompetitive and finished 34th. Heading into the weekend, I think viewing him as a mid-pack driver with roll of the dice upside is the right play.
Kansas Track History – Todd Gilliland has run well in many of the recent Kansas races but overall, he’s 5 for 8 at finishing between 23rd to 27th. That said in 3 of the last 4 he’s finished between 12th to 14th. Last year, Gilliland went 2 for 2 at finishing 12th. Last fall, Gilliland finished 12th but take note of his 27.8 average running position and 34th best Speed Ranking. Gilliland definitely benefitted from late attrition/ wildness and with 10 to go he was running in 20th. Last spring, Gilliland once again finished 12th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gilliland ranked 19th with his speed over the segments being 26th, 22nd, 21st and 13th. In fall 2024, Gilliland finished 27th, had a 20.9 average running position and earned the 24th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Gilliland ranked 18th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2024, Gilliland finished 14th and was at his best late.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Kansas Advent Health 400 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier