Watkins Glen Go Bowling At The Glen Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Todd Gilliland
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland is a solid Watkins Glen performer for his tier. Gilliland didn’t run well last year (28th) but in the two Watkins Glen races prior to that, Gilliland had solid results of 16th and 11th. That said, last year is ultimately the most important race and going back to 2025 at road courses over the combined races, Gilliland ranks 32nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, has a 22.6 average finish and to begin the season on this track type he finished 21st at COTA. Heading into the weekend, I would just view Gilliland as a mid-pack driver who’ll have potential upside.
Watkins Glen Track History – Todd Gilliland has been respectable at Watkins Glen but overall, in the Next Gen, he ranks 24th for Next Gen Speed Rankings, 27th for Driver Rating and then 28th for average finish (23.3). In terms of the results column, Gilliland has two top 16’s but over the other two he’s finished 28th or worse. Last year, Gilliland had one of those “Worse” afternoons and finished 28th. In the race, Gilliland wasn’t remotely competitive and had a 24.6 average running position and ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Gilliland finished 16th, had a 24.7 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Gilliland started 25th, had a 20.6 average running position, had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 11th. To close out the race, Gilliland was at his best and over the final quarter of the race, the #38 was the 14th fastest car on the track. In 2022, Gilliland had a short race, but he showed potential until his demise. In the race, Gilliland had the best Total Speed Ranking, but I’m attributing that to tire strategy due to track conditions (That was the rain race). When the checkered flag waved, Gilliland finished 38th after breaking his axle on lap 28. On lap 27 just before that, Gilliland was the race leader. If Gilliland’s race would’ve been incident free, I suppose he could’ve had a solid afternoon, but to be honest, I really don’t know what to think.

Erik Jones
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones might have roll of the dice upside at Watkins Glen since he finished 12th last year but I wouldn’t be confident picking him. The #43 team has been flagrantly bad at road courses and since 2025 on this track type, Jones ranks 34th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and has a 25.0 average finish, with Watkins Glen last summer being the only race he cracked the top 15. To start the 2026 season on this track type, Jones finished 34th at COTA.  At Watkins Glen in the Next Gen, Jones has a 21.0 average finish and ranks 23rd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would just view Jones as a +20 driver who might have upside.
Watkins Glen Track History – Erik Jones has had success at Watkins Glen and in fact, he’s 4 for 8 at finishing in the top 12. That said, much of his success is front loaded for his career and in 3 of the last 5 he’s finished 27th or worse. Last year, Jones finished 12th but take note he had a 21.2 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Jones was at his best to close out and over the 4th segment he ranked 9th for speed. Over the first three segments he had speed rankings of 26th, 27th and then 24th. In 2024, Jones had his worst Watkins Glen result and finished 33rd. In the race, Jones had a 26.1 average running position, earned the 25th best Driver Rating and ranked 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Jones finished 29th, had a 28.1 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. It was just an outright ugly showing. In 2022, Jones had a solid showing and finished 10th. Additionally, Jones had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and a 15.2 average running position. In 2021, Jones simply didn’t run well and finished 27th.

Zane Smith
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith had a great performance at Watkins Glen in 2024 (5th) but last year in what is ultimately the most important race, Smith finished a mediocre 17th. Heading into the weekend, I would lean 99% more towards that 17th than his 5th. At road courses since 2025, Smith ranks 31st in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and to begin the season at COTA he finished 33rd but ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would just have mid-pack expectations and hope for the best.
Watkins Glen Track History – In the Next Gen at Watkins Glen over his two starts, Zane Smith has an 11.0 average finish but ranks 25th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year at Watkins Glen, Smith was mid-pack. In the race, Smith finished 17th, had a 25.5 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Back in 2024, Smith finished 5th. Additionally, Smith earned the 8th best Driver Rating and had a 14.1 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Smith ranked 10th and over the final quarter of the race, he fielded the 3rd fastest car on the track. I’ll also note, being a non-Playoff driver in this race like him was an advantage since he was able to do the pit strategy which plays to the best finish.

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