Dover All-Star Race Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Dover for the All-Star Race. Dover is a unique 1.0-mile concrete oval that is physically demanding, and drivers have to get up on the wheel and race hard. This year’s All-Star Race has unique rules. Everybody is racing but only 26 will advance to Stage #3. Here’s a look at the RULES.
On Friday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams had 90-minutes and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Dover Practice Notes, Dover Practice 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Averages and Dover Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages.
Here’s Dover Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Dover Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Dover Outlook – Denny Hamlin has back-to-back Dover wins and on Sunday in the All-Star Race, the road to victory lane might very well go thru the #11. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating and a 2.3 average finish over the last three. Last year at Dover, Hamlin was clutch in closing time and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin started 13th, finished 3rd in both Stage #1 and #2, had the 2nd best average running position (3.7), earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and led 67 laps. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 2nd for both Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2024 en route to victory lane, Hamlin had the best average running position (4.1), led the most laps (136) and earned the best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Hamlin ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin had a 4.9 average running position, earned the 5th best Driver Rating and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and then 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Hamlin might’ve very well been the best again but his race was anything but incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, led 67 laps, won Stage #1 but then following the Stage #1 pit stops, he lost a wheel which dropped him all the way back to the mid 20’s. Hamlin battled back and was up to 4th on lap 240, but then Cody Ware spun in front of him and clipped the #11. That ended his competitive afternoon but to make things worse, he later got a speeding penalty which led to his 21st. This year at intermediate tracks, Hamlin has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and the best average finish (4.5).
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading: Dover Finish Projections, DraftKings Dover Scoring Projections, FanDuel Dover Scoring Projections, Dover RPM, Dover Next Gen Average Finishes, Dover Next Gen Speed Rankings
2) Christopher Bell
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Dover Outlook – Look for Christopher Bell to be a contender to win the All-Star Race. The #20 team has been one of the best at Dover in the Next Gen, and last year you could argue he was the class of the field, but his race was anything but incident free. In the Next Gen over the combined races, Bell has been top 6 good in 3 of the 4 races, ranks 8th for Next Gen Speed Rankings and has the 10th best Driver Rating, despite having back-to-back clunker results. Last year, the #20 might’ve just been the best but Bell finished an asterisk mark 18th. In the race, Bell started 3rd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 67 laps but then during the restart for the final Stage while battling for the lead, he spun out which dropped him back to 22nd. Bell battled back and ran long during a green flag pit cycle and caught a lucky break caution when it started to sprinkle on lap 337, which got him back to the front and up to 2nd. Then late in the race on lap 392 while battling for the lead, Bell spun and crashed which led to his 18th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 3rd. In 2024, Bell had a tough afternoon and finished 34th, which included a slow pit stop and crash, but he also never looked better than being a teens driver. In 2023, Bell finished 6th and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Bell was stellar despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Bell started 17th, finished 3rd in Stage #1 (used some pit strategy) but then during the restart for Stage #2, Bell made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel that dropped him off the lead lap. Bell battled back and once he got back on the lead lap around the midpoint, the #20 drove up thru the field to his 4th place finish. This year at intermediate tracks, Bell ranks 5th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and in the last two races he’s run great and been top five good.
DraftKings $9,700/ FanDuel $12,000
3) Chase Elliott
Start 31st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Dover Outlook – Two-time Dover winner, Chase Elliott will be tough competition at Dover. In the Next Gen at “The Monster Mile”, Elliott won the first race, has the 2nd best average finish (5.8), the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and ranks 3rd for Driver Rating. Going back further for his career minus an accident (2020 #2) and an engine failure (2019 #2), Elliott has a 4.8 average finish. Last year, Elliott ranked among the best. In the race, Elliott won the pole, won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had the best average running position (2.4), earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (238) and then finished 6th overall. I’ll note, Elliott could’ve had an even more dominant performance but during green flag pit stops in Stage #2 while leading, he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 1st to 5th. On lap 380 before late cautions broke out, Elliott was running in 3rd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked #1. In 2024, Elliott started way back in 29th but raced his way to a 5th place finish. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In the two races prior to that, Elliott had results of 11th (Early return race following injury) and 1st (led 71 laps, best Total Speed Ranking). Elliott is starting deep in the field in 31st which is scary, but don’t forget about the invert out there if he finishes in the top 26 in Stage #1.
DraftKings $10,000/ FanDuel $13,000