Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Sonoma for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Sonoma was freshly repaved for 2024, so this will be year #3 on the new surface. Last year following practice, Allmendinger noted it was already 2.5-second slower, so Sunday should be quite a race after another year of aging.

On Saturday, practice was held for Sonoma. Teams had 25 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Sonoma Practice Notes, Sonoma 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Sonoma Group Speed Rankings and Sonoma Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages. 

Here’s the Sonoma Starting Lineup/ Qualifying Results.

Sonoma Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Shane van Gisbergen
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Sonoma Outlook – At Sonoma in the Toyota / Save Mart 350, Shane van Gisbergen will look to stomp the field and there’s no doubt that the road to victory lane goes thru him. SVG’s the premiere road course racer in NASCAR and he dominated this race last summer. Last July, SVG started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1 despite pitting, won Stage #2 despite pitting, had a 1.2 average running position, led 97 laps and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed stats, SVG had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. At road courses, SVG’s a 7-time winner and since 2025 on this track type, SVG has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and minus San Diego his average finish is 1.8. In practice, SVG had the best 5-lap average in Group 1.
DraftKings $14,000/ FanDuel $14,500

Further Recommended Reading = Sonoma Finish Projections, DraftKings Sonoma Scoring Projections, FanDuel Sonoma Scoring Projections, Sonoma Average Finishes, Sonoma Next Gen Speed Rankings, Sonoma Next GEN RPM

2) Kyle Larson
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Sonoma Outlook – 2-time Sonoma winner, Kyle Larson has been elite at Sonoma and on Sunday, look for him to be a contender. “Performance Wise” in 3 of the last 5 at Sonoma, I think he’s been the best. In the Next Gen at Sonoma, Larson ranks 5th for Speed, 7th for Driver Rating and has an 8.0 average finish minus last year. In 2025, Larson had a tough race and finished 35th. In the race, Larson didn’t seem to like his car and he also had a late spin on lap 106 while running in 20th, which doomed him to an asterisk mark 35th. In terms of “Performance”, I would say Larson was really a teen’s performer. In the race, Larson had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 16.1 average running position. In 2024, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson had the best average running position (5.5), earned the best Driver Rating and led 19 laps. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Larson was solid, finishing 8th, had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and had an 11.1 average running position. In 2022, Larson likely had the best car, but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In 2021 en route to victory lane, Larson led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating and had the best Total Speed Ranking. At road courses going back to last year, Larson’s finished in the top 6 in 3 of the last 4 races. In practice, Larson had the best 10 and 15-lap averages.
DraftKings $9,500/ FanDuel $12,000

3) Ty Gibbs
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Sonoma Outlook – Polesitter, Ty Gibbs is an elite road course racer and at Sonoma, look for him to be fast and potentially be a factor. The overall results column for him isn’t great at Sonoma but he’s better than ever at road courses and he ran great last summer en route to a 7th. At road courses since 2025, Gibbs ranks 4th for Speed and in the results column minus COTA 2025 and Watkins Glen 2025 his average finish is 7.7. Last summer at Sonoma, Gibbs finished 7th. Additionally, Gibbs earned the 6th best Driver Rating, had the 7th best Speed Ranking and had the 7th best average running position (9.1). In 2024, Gibbs had a short race, but he showed potential despite his 37th. In the race, Gibbs started 10th, had the 7th best Total Speed ranking, was in 11th on lap 16 but then that lap he slammed into the wall, which marked the end of his race. In 2023, Gibbs had a pretty un-notable performance and finished 18th. Additionally, Gibbs ranked 12th for Total Speed Rankings and had a 13th place average running position. In practice, Gibbs had the 4th best 15-lap average.
DraftKings $9,100/ FanDuel $11,000