Indianapolis Brickyard 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Todd Gilliland
Indianapolis Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland has a pair of 6th’s at Indy. Do I think he can keep the good times going? No, but I also don’t think he would’ve ever finished 6th in the first place. On a weekly basis the #34 team is about 20th place good so I think it’s wise to project him to finish around that mark again but note wildness might just allow him to sneak in a really good result once again as he vies for the In-Season Bracket championship. At Pocono in June, Gilliland finished 19th and ranked 27th for Speed.
Indianapolis Track History – At Indy, Todd Gilliland is 2 for 2 at finishing 6th. In other Next Gen analytics, he ranks 15th for Driver Rating and then 17th for Speed. Last year en route to his 6th, Gilliland had an 18.9 average running position and ranked 24th for Total Speed Rankings. That said, he did rank as having the 5th fastest car on the track over the final quarter of the race. On lap 154 just prior to overtime, Gilliland was in 15th, so late mayhem was certainly a boost. In 2024, Gilliland finished 6th. I would say that finish is pretty legit since he ran well to close out. I’ll note, they did use pit strategy to get positioned well but that’s nearly half the battle at this venue. In the race, Gilliland had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 16.5 average running position.

John H Nemechek 
Indianapolis Fantasy Outlook – If you’re looking for a dark horse at Indy, don’t overlook John H Nemechek. At Pocono, the #42 was fast and that afternoon a few weeks ago, Nemechek had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 4th. Last year at Indy, Nemechek was also solid, finishing 12th, and the #42 team is a lot more competitive now than they were then. In the Next Gen at Indy, Nemechek ranks 13th for Speed, 14th for Driver Rating and has a misleading 20.5 average finish. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a teens driver who might just flirt with a top ten.
Indianapolis Track History – Last year at Indy, John H Nemechek was solid. In the race, Nemechek started 36th, had an 18th place average running position and then finished 12th. I’ll note before overtime, he was back in 18th so late mayhem helped. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranked 14th for Speed Late In A Run and then 21st for Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Nemechek was legitimately a top ten contender but finished an asterisk mark 29th. In the race, Nemechek started 10th, finished about 13th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 16 laps, but then in the final Stage, pit strategy dropped him back to mid-pack, he was in 16th at the start of overtime but then crashed in a multi-car wreck. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranked 9th.

Zane Smith
Indianapolis Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith will have dark horse upside at Indy for the risk takers out there. I view Pocono to be the best comp track and Smith looked top ten good a few weeks ago until he crashed, leading to his 37th. Over the first segment of the race, Smith ranked 11th for Speed. At Indy in the Next Gen, Smith ranks 19th for Speed, 21st for Driver Rating and then has a 24.0 average finish. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a mid-pack driver who’ll have upside.
Indianapolis Track History – Last year at Indy, Zane Smith finished 31st but you can get out an asterisk mark for that result. In overtime while running in 13th, he was spun. Additionally, Smith had a 20.0 average running position and ranked 23rd for Total Speed Rankings. Over the segments, Smith had speed rankings of 31st, 18th, 19th and 12th, so he was at his best when it counted. In 2024, Smith had a high-teens afternoon. In the race, Smith finished 17th, had a 17.1 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

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