Darlington Cook Out Southern 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Zane Smith
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith is a driver down the depth chart who shouldn’t be overlooked. Smith didn’t run well this spring but in 2025, he was 2 for 2 at finishing in the low double-digits with results of 12th and 13th. Those two results are my primary hope for upside. Overall at Darlington minus his first start, Smith has a 17.5 average finish and his overall Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 23rd.
Darlington History – Last year at Darlington, Zane Smith had a great year with a 12.5 average finish and a 13.5 average Speed Ranking. This spring, Smith didn’t back up his strong 2025 and was just mid-pack. In the race, Smith started 19th, had a 22nd place average running position and then finished 22nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Smith finished 25th. Last summer, Smith finished 13th. Additionally, Smith ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 25.2 average running position. When it was closing time, Smith was at his best and with about 50 to go until the conclusion he moved from 20th up to his 13th. Last spring, Smith had a stellar showing and finished 12th, which is legit. In the race, Smith earned the 11th best Driver Rating, had a 14.3 average running position and was tied for 7th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2024, Smith finished 23rd, had a 27.6 average running position and ranked 17th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, attrition did help him slightly and on lap 340 just prior to a “Big One”, he was in 26th. In spring 2024, Smith had a short afternoon and finished 35th. On lap 163 while running in 33rd, Smith spun, had flat tires and was then stuck on the track which somehow DNF’ed him.

Shane van Gisbergen
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Shane van Gisbergen has an overall bad track record at Darlington, but he was solid this spring and that’s ultimately the most important race (14th). Overall in the Next Gen over his four starts, SVG has a 23.0 average finish and ranks 33rd for Speed. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a teens driver and hope for the best.
Darlington History – This spring at Darlington, Shane van Gisbergen had a solid showing. In the race, SVG started 33rd, had a 20.3 average running position and then raced his way to a 14th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, SVG ranked 16th. Last summer, SVG used out of sync pit strategy which had him often running long but it was an ugly evening, with him finishing 32nd, having a 23.7 average running position and ranking 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings (pit strategy hurt that statistic). In spring 2025, SVG finished 20th.

Riley Herbst
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Darlington has been brutal to Riley Herbst, so he’ll likely have a ton of out of sync potential. His average finish is 32.3 and in terms of Next Gen Speed and Driver Rating he ranks 34th. That said, Herbst was mid-pack good this spring until he was spun and got into the wall, so he was a lot better than his 35th you’ll see in the results column. On Sunday night, I’m going to be optimistic and have mid-pack expectations.
Darlington History – At Darlington, Riley Herbst has finished 28th or worse over all three of his starts and his average finish is 32.3, which ranks as the worst among active drivers in the Next Gen. This spring, Herbst looked like a mid to high-teens performer, but he finished an asterisk mark 35th. In the race, Herbst started 14th, finished Stage #1 in 12th, finished Stage #2 in 18th but then early in the last Stage on lap 197 while running in 18th, Zilisch got into the back of him and it sent Herbst spinning and he got into the inside wall, which led to him finishing 5-laps down and marked the last caution of the race. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Herbst ranked 23rd but take note over the first two segments which were incident free for him, he ranked 10th and 18th for Speed. Last summer, Herbst finished 28th, earned the 30th best Driver Rating, ranked 31st in terms of average running position (28.6) and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2025, Herbst had an ugly afternoon and finished two laps down in 34th. In the race, Herbst ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings, had a 32.6 average running position and ranked 36th in terms of Driver Rating.

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