Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Riley Herbst
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Riley Herbst is a driver down the depth chart who should be on your radar. Herbst had a solid showing at Kansas this spring (14th), he finished 10th at Chicagoland in the most recent race at a high-speed 1.5 and over the combined races on this sub-track type in 2026, Herbst is 3 for 5 at finishing in the top 14, has a 15.8 average finish and ranks 18th for Speed. What I don’t like about Herbst is that he’s been running into a lot of problems in recent weeks.
Kansas History – At Kansas in the Next Gen, Riley Herbst has a 24.5 average finish and ranks 31st for Speed. That said, fantasy racing is all about what have you done lately and he had his lone good Kansas performance this spring. In April, Herbst started 22nd, had a 14.5 average running position and then finished 14th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Herbst ranked 14th for both Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, there was quite a bit of attrition and Herbst finished 22nd. Additionally, Herbst had a 29.1 average running position and ranked 33rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Herbst finished 27th, had a 29.5 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2024 in a pre-rookie start, Herbst raced in the Rick Ware Racing #15 and finished two laps down in 35th.

Todd Gilliland
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland is a driver deep on the depth chart who’ll be worth a look. He finished a mid-pack 17th this spring but in 3 of the 4 races prior to that he finished between 12th to 14th, which is stellar for a driver of his tier. Since 2024 over the combined Kansas races his average finish is 16.4 and his average speed ranking is 21.8. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Gilliland has finished between 16th to 20th in 3 of the last 4 races but ranks 28th for Speed.
Kansas History – Todd Gilliland has run well in many of the recent Kansas races, so he’ll be worth a roll of the dice. This spring, Gilliland had a high-teen’s afternoon. In the race, Gilliland started 26th, had a 19.5 average running position, ranked 15th for Total Speed Rankings and then finished 17th overall. To further look into his speeds, Gilliland ranked 22nd, 16th, 18th and then 11th over the four segments.  Last year, Gilliland went 2 for 2 at finishing 12th. Last fall, Gilliland finished 12th but take note of his 27.8 average running position and 34th best Speed Ranking. Gilliland definitely benefitted from late attrition/ wildness and with 10 to go he was running in 20th. Last spring, Gilliland once again finished 12th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gilliland ranked 19th with his speed over the segments being 26th, 22nd, 21st and 13th. In fall 2024, Gilliland finished 27th, had a 20.9 average running position and earned the 24th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Gilliland ranked 18th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2024, Gilliland finished 14th and was at his best late.

John H Nemechek
Kansas Fantasy Outlook – At Kansas, I have 20’s expectations with John H Nemechek. He finished 22nd this spring and at high-speed 1.5’s in 2026, he’s 5 for 5 at finishing between 21st to 26th, has a 22.6 average finish and ranks 21st in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. At Kansas in the Next Gen, Nemechek has two results of 13th or better on his resume but over the other three he’s finished 22nd or worse which has his Next Gen average finish at 21.4. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranks 28th.
Kansas History – This spring at Kansas, Nemechek had a pretty pedestrian afternoon and finished 22nd. Additionally, Nemechek had a 26.6 average running position and ranked 22nd for Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, Nemechek was poised to walk away with a high-teens finish and was running in 19th with 5 to go but then in overtime, he was caught up in a multi-car wreck leading to his 32nd. Additionally, Nemechek had a 22.5 average running position and ranked 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Nemechek ran well to close out and finished 10th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Nemechek ranked 25th but take note his speed over the segments were 34th, 28th, 18th and then 9th, so he got better as the race progressed. In fall 2024, Nemechek was likely a 20’s performer but was involved in a crash around lap 148 and went on to finish 30th. Additionally, Nemechek had a 28.4 average running position and ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2024, Nemechek finished 13th. That said, Nemechek had a 24.1 average running position, ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had the 21st best Driver Rating.

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