Phoenix Freeway Insurance 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Michael McDowell
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Michael McDowell is a driver down the depth chart who might just be worth a roll of the dice. McDowell finished 9th this spring and in 5 of the last 7 Phoenix races, he’s finished in the top 13. I can’t say I like his odds to keep that level of production going but yet he’s done it. This year at shorter-flat tracks, McDowell finished 9th at Phoenix but over the other five races he finished outside the top 15, with an overall 20.3 average finish and ranks 31st in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a mid-pack driver who has upside.
Phoenix History – Michael McDowell has shown potential at Phoenix and in 5 of the last 7 races, he’s finished 13th or better with his average finish over his incident free races being 9.4. This spring, McDowell ran well and finished 9th. Additionally, McDowell earned the 12th best Driver Rating, had a 15.5 average running position and ranked 15th for Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, McDowell snuck in an 8th. That said, McDowell was in 17th when the GWC came out, so that late wildness certainly helped him. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, McDowell ranked 26th. Last spring, McDowell had a tough afternoon and finished 27th, which can be attributed to multiple flat tires so don’t bother reading into that result. I’ll note prior to his first on lap 91, he was running in 11th. In fall 2024, in his Front Row Motorsports farewell, McDowell had a super ugly race which included an unscheduled pit stop and a speeding penalty. When the checkered flag waved, McDowell finished 31st, had a 33rd place average running position and ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the three races prior to that, McDowell had results of 8th, 9th and 13th.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, I think a mid-pack finish likely awaits Ricky Stenhouse Jr., if he can avoid trouble. In the desert in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished between 17th to 23rd, and that’s a trend I can believe in. Over the last three his average finish is 20th. Overall in the Next Gen, Stenhouse has a 24th place average finish but ranks 32nd for Speed. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Stenhouse ranks 34th for Speed and then 35th for average finish (26.5).
Phoenix History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has typically been mid-pack at Phoenix in recent races and as you read above, in 6 of the last 7 he’s finished between 17th to 23rd. This spring, Stenhouse finished 22nd, had a 26.3 average running position and ranked 29th for Speed. Last fall, Stenhouse finished 17th, had a 20th place average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note before the GWC caution, Stenhouse was in 23rd. Last spring, Stenhouse brought out a caution when he spun on lap 10, made an unexpected pit stop on lap 260 while running in the 20’s but managed to finish 21st, thanks in a large part to the high attrition rate. In the race, Stenhouse had a 26.1 average running position and earned the 27th best Driver Rating. In fall 2024, Stenhouse was quite bad. In the race, Stenhouse finished 33rd, had a 26.3 average running position and ranked 35th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the three races prior to that, Stenhouse had results of 21st, 23rd and 19th.

Riley Herbst
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, I think Riley Herbst might be mid-pack, if he avoids trouble. Herbst finished mid-pack this spring (18th) and in 4 of the 6 races at shorter-flat tracks this year he’s finished between 18th to 24th. Overall at shorter-flat tracks this season minus the last two which he’s crashed and finished 34th, Herbst has a 20.3 average finish and a 23.3 average Speed Ranking.
Phoenix History – At Phoenix, Riley Herbst has finished better in each new start and over his combined races his average finish is 26th. This spring, Herbst finished 18th, had a 22.3 average running position and ranked 26th for Speed. Last fall, the attrition rate helped Herbst and he finished 23rd. Additionally, Herbst had a 25.5 average running position, ranked 29th in terms of Driver Rating and had the 30th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Herbst crashed and finished 37th. In the race, Herbst finished 29th in Stage #1, was running around 22nd on lap 96 but then on lap 99 he was caught up in a “Big One”, ending his afternoon.

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