Talladega YellaWood 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Cole Custer
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Cole Custer is a driver down the depth chart who’ll have dark horse upside at Talladega. He’s run well at big superspeedways and in 2025 on this track type, Custer had a 13.4 average finish, and that even underrates him. This year at big superspeedways, he finished 10th at Daytona #2 but in the other two he finished 24th or worse which has his 2026 Track Type average finish at 24.0. I can’t say I would pick him with confidence, but this race is circled on his schedule, and he has boosted odds to sneak in a good result.
Talladega History – At Talladega in the Next Gen, Custer ranks 19th for Driver Rating and 23rd for average finish (21.2). In 2 of the last 3 races, Custer’s finished in the top 13. This spring, Custer showed potential but had a short afternoon. In the race, Custer finished around 13th in Stage #1, was running in 7th on lap 114 but then the next lap he crashed in the “Big One” which marked the end of his race, leading to his 38th. Last year between the combined races, Custer had a 9th place average finish. Last fall, Custer ran well when it counted and finished 5th. Outside of the end, you never really seen him and his average running position was 21st. Last spring, Custer finished 13th and had a 14.6 average running position. Back in 2022 when he next most recently competed here, Custer had results of 21st and 29th.

Shane van Gisbergen
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – The draft/attrition are great equalizers, so Shane van Gisbergen might just sneak in a good result. In the Next Gen, SVG has a 13.0 average finish over his two fall races but a 25.7 average finish over his three spring races, so there’s a little further hope. This year at big superspeedways, SVG has finished 20th or worse every race and has a 26.0 average finish, so he’s largely just a roll of the dice driver and hope for the best.
Talladega History – At Talladega over his five starts, SVG has a 20.6 average finish and ranks 23rd for Next Gen Driver Ratings. This spring, SVG had a great chance to finish in the top ten but on the last lap he was caught up in a wreck, leading to his 20th. With 1 lap to go, he was running in 9th. Additionally, SVG earned the 10th best Driver Rating and had the 11th best average running position (16.6). Last fall, SVG finished 11th. Additionally, SVG ranked 13th in terms of Driver Rating and had an 18.3 average running position. I’ll quickly note at the start of overtime, he was actually back in 19th. SVG also did bring out a caution on lap 111 when he spun coming to pit road, but that was ultimately harmless. Last spring, SVG finished 29th and had a 27.3 average running position. I’ll note, he did get a speeding penalty during Stage #2 green flag pit stops when he was running just outside the top ten, but he had time to bounce back. In fall 2024, SVG escaped with a 15th. In spring 2024, SVG finished 28th.

Austin Hill
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Austin Hill is a super-elite big superspeedway performer in the O’Reilly series but against Cup competition, he’s been “Just Another Guy”, being 5 for 6 at finishing 22nd or worse with a 23.7 average finish. At Daytona #2 in his only Cup big superspeedway start this year, Hill finished 27th. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a mid-pack driver with potential upside.
Talladega History – In the O’Reilly series, Austin Hill has won 2 of the last 3 races but against Cup competition, he’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the 20’s with a 23.0 average finish. Last fall when he most recently raced here, Hill finished 22nd. Back in spring 2023 in his one other start, Hill finished 24th.

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