Homestead NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images

On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Homestead to crown a champion! Kyle Larson only needs to score 9-points independent on what anyone else does, so don’t expect too much drama in terms of the points battle. The real battle will be for the win and who has bragging rights for being the most recent winner until Daytona.

Homestead is a unique symmetrical 1.5-mile track where tire wear is extreme, and pit strategy consists of taking 4 tires every stop. The high-line is the fast-line, and the best of the best have consistently shined here over the years. Homestead will mark the 9th 1.5-mile intermediate track race in 2026. Here’s a look at 2026 1.5-Mile Track Average Finishes and 2026 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings.

On Friday, practice was held for Homestead. Make sure you check out our Homestead Practice Notes, Homestead 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Homestead Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages. 

Homestead Full Field Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Ryan Blaney
Start 9th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Homestead Fantasy Outlook –
Ryan Blaney is a super-elite performer at Homestead who’ll be a driver to be reckoned with. Blaney was the class of the field last year and in the two Homestead races prior to that, he finished 2nd. In the Next Gen era at this high-wear 1.5, Blaney ranks 1st for Speed, 2nd for Driver Rating but has a 14.3 average finish via two misleading results. Last year, Blaney looked to have the field covered but finished an asterisk mark 36th. In the race, Blaney started 6th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2 (got passed by drivers who had fresher tires), had a slow Stage #2 pit stop that dropped him from 3rd to 9th, rebounded back up to 3rd on lap 207 but then his engine blew up. In the race, Blaney led the most laps (124) and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024, Blaney nearly raced his way to victory lane but on the last lap in the last turn, Reddick got around him which led to Blaney’s 2nd. In the race, Blaney started 20th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 47 laps and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, the #12 was a rocket and he looked to be the only driver who had anything for Larson prior to the #5’s demise. In the race, Blaney started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 53 laps, earned the best Driver Rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Blaney was a stopwatch standout and ranked #1 across the board for 10,15,20,25 and 30-lap averages. In the Chase at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, Blaney is 3 for 3 at finishing in the top 5, has a 4.3 average finish and has a 4.0 average Speed Ranking.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500

Further Recommended Reading = Homestead Finish Projections, DraftKings Homestead Scoring Projections, FanDuel Homestead Scoring Projections, Homestead Quick Rankings, Homestead Next Gen Average Finishes, Homestead Next Gen Speed Rankings

2) Chase Briscoe
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Homestead Fantasy Outlook –
Look for Chase Briscoe to be a factor at Homestead from the pole. Briscoe finished 4th last year in his only race here in the #19 and in 2026 at 1.5-mile tracks, nobody has been better in the second half of the season. At 1.5’s since Chicagoland, Briscoe’s won 3 of the 4 races and his average finish is 1.8. For the season over the combined races held at 1.5’s, Briscoe ranks 3rd for Speed and his average finish minus Charlotte #1 and Texas is 3.0. Last year at Homestead in what is ultimately the most important race, Briscoe started 4th, had an 8.8 average running position and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Briscoe ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024 in his old ride, Briscoe finished 12th, had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 13.6 average running position. In practice, Briscoe was fast and ranked 2nd for 10-lap averages and then 4th for 20-lap averages. 
DraftKings $9,900 / FanDuel $11,500

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-Higf
Homestead Fantasy Outlook –
Three-time Homestead winner, Denny Hamlin will be going all out on Sunday, and I have no doubt he’ll be tough to beat. Hamlin ranks among the premiere Homestead performers and in 2026 at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, he’s been a consistent threat. This year at 1.5’s, Hamlin has 1-win, a series best 4.6 average finish and ranks #1 for Track Type Total Speed Rankings. At Homestead, Hamlin’s been a standout performer and in the Next Gen he ranks 4th for Speed, 4th for Driver Rating and has a 5th place average finish minus 2023. Last year, Hamlin started 23rd but methodically worked his way to the front. In the race, Hamlin finished 12th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 15 laps, ran in the top five throughout the last Stage, earned the 6th best Driver Rating and then finished 5th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 7th with his speed over the segments being 18th, 6th, 2nd and then 6th. In 2024, Hamlin was a factor but came up short at the end. In the race, Hamlin finished 7th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 21 laps, had a 5.0 average running position and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the fastest driver late in a run and ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Hamlin was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 30th. In the race, Hamlin finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 31 laps but on lap 236 while battling for 3rd, something broke in Hamlin’s steering and he then pounded the wall hard. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 5th. Over the three races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 7th, 11th and 1st. In practice, Hamlin was fast throughout a run, ranking 7th for 10-lap averages, 7th for 20-lap averages and then 5th for 30-lap averages. 
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,500

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