Homestead-Miami Ford EcoBoost 400: Fantasy NASCAR “Mid Pack” Projections

Regan Smith 2012 Fantasy NASCAR

Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

Kurt Busch – No driver had a tougher Homestead than Kurt Busch last season. On lap #3 he had transmission problems and while he was in the garage he blew up his career. Kurt Busch has some fantasy potential again. The #78 team is a step up from the #51 and a few weeks ago at Texas he finished 8th. Kurt Busch is a risky pick at Homestead. In his last nine races here he has four top five finishes but his non-top five average finish is 34.8. Look for him to finish between 8th and 15th. (Yahoo! B Driver)

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Paul Menard – Menard has had some success at high-speed intermediate tracks this year but he’s very inconsistent. It’s hard to know what you’ll get from him each week. It could be good or it could be bad. If you pick him the safe thing to assume is a mid pack finish. At high-speed intermediate tracks this season his 15.4 average finish ranks as the 15th best this season. Menard hasn’t had any success at Homestead. He has a 23.8 average finish and has only led one lap. He’s raced here six times and he’s never finished in the top fifteen or started in the top fifteen. His stats especially his average finish aren’t skewed. He’s finished on the lead lap in four of his six races and has failed to only complete six laps. (Yahoo! B Driver)

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9 Responses to “Homestead-Miami Ford EcoBoost 400: Fantasy NASCAR “Mid Pack” Projections”

  1. Peter November 13, 2012 at 1:01 pm #

    Last race and I’m neck and neck with another guy at my shop. Need to win baby! Will my team of the 5,17,78,43 beat his team of the 11,29,55,42????

    • Ryan Rantz November 13, 2012 at 1:06 pm #

      I think so. 42 isn’t good and 55 is a ticking time bomb.

  2. Peter November 13, 2012 at 3:16 pm #

    Thanks Ryan! But could you explain a little more on the 55. Because I thought that Mark Martin could be the one that would possible do good and mess it up for me. Does it have something to do with what happened with Gordan and Bowyer?

  3. Ryan Rantz November 13, 2012 at 4:20 pm #

    For reference on Mark Martin I’ll point you towards my Front Runner Rankings post —> http://ifantasyrace.com/2012/11/12/homestead-miami-ford-ecoboost-400-fantasy-nascar-front-runner-rankings/ …. Gordon and Bowyer have zero impact on Martin.

  4. mark November 15, 2012 at 10:13 pm #

    ryan, im 27 points up on my next team member for the yahoo playoff segment. i have won the first 2 segments with this week i can sweep everythin 3 segments and the championship. im think A LIST– 48 OR 17 ? B LIST–39 16 78 55? C LIST– 47 OR 6 OR 21? Any ideas what my team should look llike / thanks

  5. Ryan Rantz November 15, 2012 at 11:12 pm #

    For A I would do the #17. 48’s better but there’s always a storyline in NASCAR. The last time Johnson was racing for the championship when he lost it he blew his tire at Homestead. This will be Kenseth’s last race in the 17 and I like that story line. It’s also important to note that this is a Roush track. Hendrick has never won here.

    For B I would look towards the 16 and 78.

    For C I would avoid the #47 and go with the 6 and 21. Go with the 43 if you have any starts left.

    Of course I would recommend just checking back in after practice on Saturday to really fine tune your team.

  6. Dave November 17, 2012 at 9:45 pm #

    Hi Ryan,who do you like here,21,6,93,47. Thanks Who do you like here 9,1,27,42. Thanks

    • Ryan Rantz November 17, 2012 at 10:07 pm #

      In the first grouping I think it’s a tossup between the 6 and 21. Between the two I would give Stenhouse the edge. I think he’s a better driver and he has a chance for a top fifteen. One thing that should be noted about both of them is that last year Roush ran experimental engines in almost every car. I believe three of them had engine failures (Biffle. Ambrose and someone else). 93 spun in practice and you can’t trust Bobby Labonte for a good result.

      In the next grouping I would rank them 27, 1, 9 and then 42.

    • Jordan McAbee November 17, 2012 at 10:27 pm #

      Dave, I agree, 21 or 6 would be the way to go in the first group. Neither of them look particularly great but I’d give a slight edge to Stenhouse.

      As far as the second group, I really like McMurray as a sleeper this week–I think he can run top 15. Ambrose is a close second and I wouldn’t recommend the 42 or the 27.

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