Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500 Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks

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A= Really, Really Good Pick

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is a quick starter every season (Daytona is a throw away race for him) and when you pair that with one of his best tracks watch out. At Phoenix Johnson has 4 wins, 10 top fives and 13 top tens in 15 starts. Last November Johnson had the fifth best driver rating (110.3) (Yahoo A Driver)

Carl Edwards – Last time Edwards raced at Phoenix he started first and finished there. He led 93 laps and had an average running position of second. Edwards has finished in the top ten at Phoenix in 9 out of 13 races. (Yahoo A Driver)

A- = Really Good Pick

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch had this race won last year before an untimely caution ruined his chances. Last year in this race he led 113 laps. He was strong in the fall race as well and had an average running position of 5th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is a previous winner who finished 6th last fall. What I really like about Harvick is his ability to overcome adversity. Last year he started in the back and raced his way into the top five. Then mistakes were made but he overcame adversity once again to get a good finish. Check out his Yahoo race chart. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Last year Jeff Gordon finished 2nd and 11th at Phoenix. His record is also nearly flawless . He’s finished in the top ten in the desert in 71% of his races there. (Yahoo A Driver)

Mark Martin – Last season was a down year for Martin but that didn’t affect him to much at Phoenix. In both trips to Arizona Martin finished in the top ten (4th and 8th). (Yahoo B Driver)

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B+ = Good Pick

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin was extremely strong last fall at Phoenix but fuel mileage ruined his day. Last fall he led 190 laps but the thing you need to worry about here is that Denny Hamlin is almost always slow out of the gate every season. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kurt Busch – In recent years Kurt Busch has been Jimmie Johnson’s main competitor. He’s finished in the top ten in four out of the last five Phoenix races. (Yahoo A Driver)

Matt Kenseth – Last year Kenseth finished 7th and 6th at Phoenix. He’s also a previous winner and with the reduced fuel mileage this year because of the new fuel look for Kenseth’s pit crew to become a significant factor. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jeff Burton – There’s a lot of Jeff Burton fantasy hate out there this year but his primary strength is short flat tracks. It’s hard to argue against his 11.7 average finish. (Yahoo B Driver)

B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Ryan Newman – Newman finished first and second last year so why am I giving him a B? He only led 4 laps and he has a troubled past there. All of his other finishes at Phoenix since 2008 have been outside of the top fifteen. Could be a fantasy trap here set for the gullible? (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya is good at Phoenix but the risk/ rewards factor is an issue. His last three finishes are 16th, 5th, and 8th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – If he’s back this will be the race that will answer that question. Back in the Eury golden days this was one of his best tracks. Earnhardt has two wins at Phoenix. (Yahoo B Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has limited success at Phoenix. Last spring he finished 9th. His career average finish is 19.4. (Yahoo B Driver)

Tony Stewart – Warning, Warning, things have not been good for Stewart at Phoenix recently. In the last six races he’s only finished in the top ten once. In his last three starts he finished 17th, 23rd, and 25th. (Yahoo A Driver)

Greg Biffle – Last fall Greg Biffle finished 4th but in my opinion that’s fools gold because he wasn’t that good. He was a benefactor of how the fuel mileage game played out. I would say he was closer to a low teen finisher. (Yahoo A Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

David Reutimann – In 2010 Reutimann finished in the 20’s both races at Phoenix. In 2009 he finished in the top ten both races. If qualifying is important to you David has started in the top ten in 3 out of the last five races. (Yahoo B Driver)

Joey Logano – Do you just look at the finish position when you consider drivers? Last year Joey Logano finished third but was he really that good? His Yahoo chart doesn’t show him to be all that strong. When I see his Yahoo race chart I see Joey Logano as a driver who only became a player when saving fuel was the name of the game. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – AJ is a teens finish driver at Phoenix. In four out of his five races he’s finished in that range. (Yahoo B List)

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has had some strong runs at Phoenix in the past but to me he’s always been to high of a risk. If you want upside though his average running position last fall was 10th. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Proceed With Caution

Jamie McMurray – McMurray’s only finished in the top ten twice at Phoenix. One of those top tens was a tenth last fall. His average finish is 20.2. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose has had some success at Phoenix but the 9 car hasn’t.  In three of five races he’s finished between 11th and 14th. He could be a quality sleeper this week. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kasey Kahne – Did you know Kasey Kahne hasn’t finished in the top ten at Phoenix since 2006? Remember last year when he had his fuel incident. Not good. (Yahoo B Driver)

C = I’m Not Picking Them

Brian Vickers – The last time he finished in the top ten was 2005 and that’s his only top ten. The last time he finished inside the top fifteen was 2006. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Ragan – Ragan has only finished in the top 18 once at Phoenix. Tell me what’s promising here? (Yahoo C Driver)

Paul Menard – He’s never finished better than 21st. He’s consistent though because all of his finishes are between 21st and 29th. (Yahoo C Driver)

Brad Keselowski – In three races his average finish is 31.7. He won the pole at New Hampshire last year so there might be Yahoo qualifying points up for grabs if you pick Keselowski. (Yahoo B Driver)

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My Pick : Jimmie Johnson

Onpitrow.com Expert Picks: Carl Edwards

Onpitrow.com Darkhorse Picks: Jimmie Johnson